气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forecasting the effect of extreme sea-level rise on financial market risk

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DOI	10.1016/j.iref.2024.03.079
	Forecasting the effect of extreme sea-level rise on financial market risk
	Garcia-Jorcano, Laura; Sanchis-Marco, Lidia
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1059-0560
EISSN	1873-8036
起始页码	93
卷号	93
英文摘要	The demand for modeling climate change and its effect on various affected financial and economic sectors is increasing. Sea-level rise is one of the major risks of climate change. Based on the global and regional mean sea level rise (MSLR), we propose extreme sea-level value at rise (ExSLVaR) and extreme sea-level expected rise (ExSLER) measures to forecast extreme MSLR calculated for the 10 -day time series from eight seas/oceans from December 1992 to October 2020. Furthermore, we analyze the connection between different regional extreme MSLR measures (US, Europe, and Australia), used as proxies of climate risk, and financial market risk in several sectors. The main evidence shows that the different regional extreme MSLR measures forecast opposite effects, positive and negative, on financial and economic sectors over time, showing climate risk premium and cost, respectively. Specifically, the insurance sector presents the highest risk premium, and the oil and gas sector the highest risk cost. These measures are relevant for policymakers, regulators, and investors seeking strategies to mitigate future physical and transition risk while accounting for such risk in policies, regulations, and portfolio allocation.
英文关键词	Sea-level rise; Climate change; Extreme value theory; Forecasting; Forecasting Financial market risk
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
WOS类目	Business, Finance ; Economics
WOS记录号	WOS:001228725700001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308494
作者单位	Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Garcia-Jorcano, Laura,Sanchis-Marco, Lidia. Forecasting the effect of extreme sea-level rise on financial market risk[J],2024,93.
APA	Garcia-Jorcano, Laura,&Sanchis-Marco, Lidia.(2024).Forecasting the effect of extreme sea-level rise on financial market risk.INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE,93.
MLA	Garcia-Jorcano, Laura,et al."Forecasting the effect of extreme sea-level rise on financial market risk".INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE 93(2024).