气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre

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DOI	10.3390/f15010211
	The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre
	Melo, Kennedy da Silva; Delgado, Rafael Coll; Pereira, Marcos Gervasio; Ortega, Givanildo Pereira; Sirca, Costantino
发表日期	2024
EISSN	1999-4907
起始页码	15
结束页码	1
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	The objective of this study was to verify the link between climate change, changes in land use, and the increasing frequency of forest fires in the state of Acre. Recognizing the importance of an accurate assessment of fire risk, we also proposed a new fire risk index for the capital Rio Branco, using meteorological data. Validated reanalysis data from 1961 to 2020 extracted for Rio Branco and different land uses were used. Data on fire foci, deforestation, and agricultural crops were also obtained. The new model was based on the Fire Risk Atlantic Forest (FIAF) Index, developed for the Atlantic Forest biome, and was subjected to multiple regression analysis. To validate the new model, projections were calculated using different scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The new model, entitled Rio Branco Fire Risk (FIRERBR), revealed an increase in fire risk, especially associated with agriculture, in future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from 2023 onward. Rainfall and relative air humidity also showed a reduction in projections, indicating a higher degree of fire danger for the region.
英文关键词	climatological variables; burn; anthropic advance; modeling; Amazon
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Forestry
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS记录号	WOS:001149199600001
来源期刊	FORESTS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308492
作者单位	Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Melo, Kennedy da Silva,Delgado, Rafael Coll,Pereira, Marcos Gervasio,et al. The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre[J],2024,15(1).
APA	Melo, Kennedy da Silva,Delgado, Rafael Coll,Pereira, Marcos Gervasio,Ortega, Givanildo Pereira,&Sirca, Costantino.(2024).The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre.FORESTS,15(1).
MLA	Melo, Kennedy da Silva,et al."The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre".FORESTS 15.1(2024).