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| DOI | 10.3390/f15010211 |
| The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 1999-4907 |
| 起始页码 | 15 |
| 结束页码 | 1 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | The objective of this study was to verify the link between climate change, changes in land use, and the increasing frequency of forest fires in the state of Acre. Recognizing the importance of an accurate assessment of fire risk, we also proposed a new fire risk index for the capital Rio Branco, using meteorological data. Validated reanalysis data from 1961 to 2020 extracted for Rio Branco and different land uses were used. Data on fire foci, deforestation, and agricultural crops were also obtained. The new model was based on the Fire Risk Atlantic Forest (FIAF) Index, developed for the Atlantic Forest biome, and was subjected to multiple regression analysis. To validate the new model, projections were calculated using different scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The new model, entitled Rio Branco Fire Risk (FIRERBR), revealed an increase in fire risk, especially associated with agriculture, in future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from 2023 onward. Rainfall and relative air humidity also showed a reduction in projections, indicating a higher degree of fire danger for the region. |
| 英文关键词 | climatological variables; burn; anthropic advance; modeling; Amazon |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Forestry |
| WOS类目 | Forestry |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001149199600001 |
| 来源期刊 | FORESTS
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308491 |
| 作者单位 | Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre[J],2024,15(1). |
| APA | (2024).The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre.FORESTS,15(1). |
| MLA | "The Consequences of Climate Change in the Brazilian Western Amazon: A New Proposal for a Fire Risk Model in Rio Branco, Acre".FORESTS 15.1(2024). |
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