气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Response of runoff to climate change in the Manas River Basin flow-producing area, Northwest China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s13201-023-02099-7
	Response of runoff to climate change in the Manas River Basin flow-producing area, Northwest China
	Gu, Xinchen; Long, Aihua; He, Xinlin; Wang, Hao; Lai, Xiaoying; Pang, Ning; Liu, Huan; Yu, Haoran
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2190-5487
EISSN	2190-5495
起始页码	14
结束页码	3
卷号	14 期号:3
英文摘要	The inland river basins of northwestern China are structured as mountain-basin systems. Water resources originate in the flow-producing area (FPA), are utilized and operated in the oasis area and are dissipated in the desert area. In this study, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was constructed in the Manas River Basin (MRB) FPA. Meanwhile, it simulated climate change and runoff evolution trends in the FPA of the MRB under different four climate change scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The main findings showed that (1) the years 1979-1980 were chosen as the model warm-up period, 1979-2000 as the model calibration period and 2001-2015 as the model validation period to complete the construction of the SWAT model for MRBFPA. From 1981 to 2015, three performance parameters indicated that the model accuracy meets the requirements (NSE = 0.81, R2 = 0.81 and PBIAS = 1.44) and can be used for further studies; (2) the hydrological elements (e.g. runoff, potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration, soil water content, snowmelt) in the MRBFPA were analysed by the constructed SWAT model; (3) the climate change in the MRBFPA is close to the RCP 8.5 scenario, and the future changes in water resources under this scenario will range from 659 to 2308 (million)m3. Compared to the multi-year historical mean value (12.95 x 108 m3), the future fluctuation in the amount of water resources available in this basin is increasing.
英文关键词	SWAT model; CMIP5; Manas River Basin flow-producing areas; Northwest China; Tianshan mountains
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001160066500001
来源期刊	APPLIED WATER SCIENCE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308482
作者单位	Tianjin University; China Institute of Water Resources & Hydropower Research; Shihezi University; Tianjin University; Nanjing Forestry University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gu, Xinchen,Long, Aihua,He, Xinlin,et al. Response of runoff to climate change in the Manas River Basin flow-producing area, Northwest China[J],2024,14(3).
APA	Gu, Xinchen.,Long, Aihua.,He, Xinlin.,Wang, Hao.,Lai, Xiaoying.,...&Yu, Haoran.(2024).Response of runoff to climate change in the Manas River Basin flow-producing area, Northwest China.APPLIED WATER SCIENCE,14(3).
MLA	Gu, Xinchen,et al."Response of runoff to climate change in the Manas River Basin flow-producing area, Northwest China".APPLIED WATER SCIENCE 14.3(2024).