气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugal

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10113-024-02217-4
	Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugal
	Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan; Dias, Luis Filipe; Kok, Kasper; van Vuuren, Detlef; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, Filipe Duarte; Azevedo, Joao C.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1436-3798
EISSN	1436-378X
起始页码	24
结束页码	2
卷号	24 期号:2
英文摘要	The Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming hinges on forest carbon sequestration as a key in several national strategies. However, Portugal's rising forest fire occurrences threaten its ability to meet ambitious 2030 and 2050 carbon sequestration targets. Considering fire and forest trends, this study aims to quantify whether Portugal can reach its carbon sequestration ambitions as stated in its 2030 and 2050 targets. We tested three national forest scenario extensions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs) based on a dynamic model, simulating forest area and carbon sequestration related to future fire risk and policies of fire management, forest management, restoration of burnt areas, and climate change adaptation. The model projects a rapidly decreasing forest area under existing Portuguese policies (PT-SSP3), a slow decline under moderate policy improvements (PT-SSP2), and an almost stable forest area under long-term sustainable policy developments (PT-SSP1). In PT-SSP3, carbon sequestration will be reduced to 60% by 2050 compared to 2015, while it declines to about 85% and 90% under PT-SSP2 and PT-SSP1, respectively. It is still plausible to reach Portugal's 2030 sequestration obligations under the EU's Paris Agreement target under all three scenarios, while the Portuguese GHG neutrality target is not reached in the presented scenarios. Our four introduced policy areas (increasing focus on fire and forest management, forest restoration, and climate change adaptation of forest stands) must be supplemented by other policy strategies, such as reforestation.
英文关键词	Climate change targets; Forest policy; Climate-induced fires; Carbon sequestration; National scenario extensions; RCP-SPA-SSP scenario framework
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:001200765300003
来源期刊	REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308464
作者单位	Universidade de Lisboa; Universidade de Lisboa; Utrecht University; Wageningen University & Research; Universidade de Lisboa; Instituto Politecnico de Braganca; Instituto Politecnico de Braganca
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan,Dias, Luis Filipe,Kok, Kasper,et al. Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugal[J],2024,24(2).
APA	Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan.,Dias, Luis Filipe.,Kok, Kasper.,van Vuuren, Detlef.,Soares, Pedro M. M..,...&Azevedo, Joao C..(2024).Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugal.REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,24(2).
MLA	Pedersen, Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan,et al."Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugal".REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 24.2(2024).