气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimation of Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change Using MIKE11 NAM Model at Parvati Catchment of Rajasthan, India

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10666-024-09958-w
	Estimation of Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change Using MIKE11 NAM Model at Parvati Catchment of Rajasthan, India
	Agrawal, Abhishek; Kothari, Mahesh; Jaiswal, R. K.; Singh, Pradeep Kumar; Bhakar, Sita Ram; Yadav, Kamal Kishore
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1420-2026
EISSN	1573-2967
英文摘要	Climate change has a significant impact on water resources, particularly on runoff. In the present study, impact of climate change on runoff under different shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) of CMIP6 is analysed over the Parvati catchment of Rajasthan using MIKE11 NAM model. The ensemble of best 3 global climate models (GCM) out of 13 GCMs is taken to generate future climate projections of rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin). MIKE11 NAM model is used for runoff simulation. The results showed a good match between observed and model simulated runoff with Nash-Sutcliff efficiency, percent of bias, coefficient of determination, and root mean square error as 0.79, - 2%, 0.79, and 4.95 during model calibration (2005-2013) and 0.67, - 12.4%, 0.68, and 0.83 during model validation (2014-2020). The changes in runoff during three future periods FP1 (2023-2039), FP2 (2046-2064), and FP3 (2081-2099) under three SSPs (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) are compared with base period (2005-2020). The projected rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin showed an increasing trend in future. Similarly, future simulated runoff is also found to increase by 2.08-3.78, 3.47-5.15, and 3.13-5.82% during FP1, FP2, and FP3, respectively. The runoff is found to increase during monsoon and pre-monsoon season, whereas decrease in runoff is found during post-monsoon and winter season. These changes in the runoff pattern suggest the need to develop better irrigation management strategies for crop planning and may help planners and policy-makers for effective water resources management.
英文关键词	Climate change; CMIP6; MIKE11 NAM; Parvati catchment; Runoff; SSPs
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001169784900001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308440
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Agrawal, Abhishek,Kothari, Mahesh,Jaiswal, R. K.,et al. Estimation of Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change Using MIKE11 NAM Model at Parvati Catchment of Rajasthan, India[J],2024.
APA	Agrawal, Abhishek,Kothari, Mahesh,Jaiswal, R. K.,Singh, Pradeep Kumar,Bhakar, Sita Ram,&Yadav, Kamal Kishore.(2024).Estimation of Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change Using MIKE11 NAM Model at Parvati Catchment of Rajasthan, India.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT.
MLA	Agrawal, Abhishek,et al."Estimation of Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change Using MIKE11 NAM Model at Parvati Catchment of Rajasthan, India".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT (2024).