气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling the impacts of climate change on the sustainability of rainfed and irrigated maize in Pakistan

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DOI	10.1016/j.agwat.2024.108794
	Modelling the impacts of climate change on the sustainability of rainfed and irrigated maize in Pakistan
	Dahri, Shahzad Hussain; Shaikh, Irfan Ahmed; Talpur, Mashooque Ali; Mangrio, Munir Ahmed; Dahri, Zakir Hussain; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Knox, Jerry W.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0378-3774
EISSN	1873-2283
起始页码	296
卷号	296
英文摘要	Maize is a globally significant food crop but its future sustainability under rainfed conditions is at risk due to climate change and increased climate uncertainty. In Pakistan most maize is rainfed but there is increasing interest in the role of supplemental irrigation to reduce the vulnerability of crop yields to future drought and climate risks. Using a crop model (DSSAT CERES-Maize) with downscaled data from a weather generator (LARSWG) and for five selected GCMs, two RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) and two time slices (2050s and 2080s), this study assessed the impacts of climate change and climate variability on rainfed maize grown in the Pothwar region of Pakistan, and the extent to which irrigation could offset future yield reductions. Model simulations were calibrated and validated using experimental data from 2021 and 2022. The outputs showed that on average the yield of maize could be increased by 55% with a single irrigation of 60 mm during the reproductive stage. For the baseline (1991-2020) the average rainfed yield was 3370 kg/ha. The climate change scenarios for the 2050s indicated a -13.5% and -5.8% decline in rainfed yield under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Irrigation applications (between 162 mm and 180 mm) increased grain yields by 5615 kg/ha and 5732 kg/ha, respectively. For the 2080s scenarios there was a projected decrease in yield by -9.3% and -39.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Modelling also confirmed significant reductions in maize biomass production which would negatively impact on feedstocks for both livestock and renewable energy generation.
英文关键词	Adaptation; CERES-Maize; Crop modelling; DSSAT; LARS-WG; Pothwar region
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001223108300001
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308322
作者单位	Sindh Agricultural University; Sindh Agricultural University; National Agricultural Research Council - Pakistan; State University System of Florida; University of Florida; Cranfield University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dahri, Shahzad Hussain,Shaikh, Irfan Ahmed,Talpur, Mashooque Ali,et al. Modelling the impacts of climate change on the sustainability of rainfed and irrigated maize in Pakistan[J],2024,296.
APA	Dahri, Shahzad Hussain.,Shaikh, Irfan Ahmed.,Talpur, Mashooque Ali.,Mangrio, Munir Ahmed.,Dahri, Zakir Hussain.,...&Knox, Jerry W..(2024).Modelling the impacts of climate change on the sustainability of rainfed and irrigated maize in Pakistan.AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,296.
MLA	Dahri, Shahzad Hussain,et al."Modelling the impacts of climate change on the sustainability of rainfed and irrigated maize in Pakistan".AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 296(2024).