气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Past dynamics and future prediction of the impacts of land use cover change and climate change on landscape ecological risk across the Mongolian plateau

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120365
	Past dynamics and future prediction of the impacts of land use cover change and climate change on landscape ecological risk across the Mongolian plateau
	Guo, Jingpeng; Shen, Beibei; Li, Haoxin; Wang, Yadong; Tuvshintogtokh, Indree; Niu, Jianming; Potter, Murray Alan; Yonghong, Frank
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0301-4797
EISSN	1095-8630
起始页码	355
卷号	355
英文摘要	Land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change are interconnected factors that affect the ecological environment. However, there is a lack of quantification of the impacts of LULC change and climate change on landscape ecological risk under different shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCP) on the Mongolian Plateau (MP). To fill this knowledge gap and understand the current and future challenges facing the MP 's land ecological system, we conducted an evaluation and prediction of the effects of LULC change and climate change on landscape ecological risk using the landscape loss index model and random forest method, considering eight SSP-RCP coupling scenarios. Firstly, we selected MCD12Q1 as the optimal LULC product for studying landscape changes on the MP, comparing it with four other LULC products. We analyzed the diverging patterns of LULC change over the past two decades and observed significant differences between Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. The latter experienced more intense and extensive LULC change during this period, despite similar climate changes. Secondly, we assessed changes in landscape ecological risk and identified the main drivers of these changes over the past two decades using a landscape index model and random forest method. The highest -risk zone has gradually expanded, with a 30% increase compared to 2001. Lastly, we investigated different characteristics of LULC change under different scenarios by examining future LULC products simulated by the FLUS model. We also simulated the dynamics of landscape ecological risks under these scenarios and proposed an adaptive development strategy to promote sustainable development in the MP. In terms of the impact of climate change on landscape ecological risk, we found that under the same SSP scenario, increasing RCP emission concentrations significantly increased the areas with high landscape ecological risk while decreasing areas with low risk. By integrating quantitative assessments and scenario -based modeling, our study provides valuable insights for informing sustainable land management and policy decisions in the region.
英文关键词	Land use change; Landscape ecological risk; Scenario evaluation; Mongolian plateau
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001224380000001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308290
作者单位	Inner Mongolia University; Inner Mongolia University; Massey University; Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Institute of Agricultural Resources & Regional Planning, CAAS; Mongolian Academy of Sciences
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Jingpeng,Shen, Beibei,Li, Haoxin,et al. Past dynamics and future prediction of the impacts of land use cover change and climate change on landscape ecological risk across the Mongolian plateau[J],2024,355.
APA	Guo, Jingpeng.,Shen, Beibei.,Li, Haoxin.,Wang, Yadong.,Tuvshintogtokh, Indree.,...&Yonghong, Frank.(2024).Past dynamics and future prediction of the impacts of land use cover change and climate change on landscape ecological risk across the Mongolian plateau.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,355.
MLA	Guo, Jingpeng,et al."Past dynamics and future prediction of the impacts of land use cover change and climate change on landscape ecological risk across the Mongolian plateau".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 355(2024).