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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ad2162
	Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario
	Akritidis, Dimitris; Bacer, Sara; Zanis, Prodromos; Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Horowitz, Larry W.; Naik, Vaishali; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Keeble, James; Le Sager, Philippe; van Noije, Twan; Zhou, Putian; Turnock, Steven; West, J. Jason; Lelieveld, Jos; Pozzer, Andrea
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1748-9326
起始页码	19
结束页码	2
卷号	19 期号:2
英文摘要	Long-term exposure to ambient ozone (O3) is associated with excess respiratory mortality. Pollution emissions, demographic, and climate changes are expected to drive future ozone-related mortality. Here, we assess global mortality attributable to ozone according to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario applied in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, projecting a temperature increase of about 3.6 degrees C by the end of the century. We estimated ozone-related mortality on a global scale up to 2090 following the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 approach, using bias-corrected simulations from three CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) under the SSP3-7.0 emissions scenario. Based on the three ESMs simulations, global ozone-related mortality by 2090 will amount to 2.79 M [95% CI 0.97 M-5.23 M] to 3.12 M [95% CI 1.11 M-5.75 M] per year, approximately ninefold that of the 327 K [95% CI 103 K-652 K] deaths per year in 2000. Climate change alone may lead to an increase of ozone-related mortality in 2090 between 42 K [95% CI -37 K-122 K] and 217 K [95% CI 68 K-367 K] per year. Population growth and ageing are associated with an increase in global ozone-related mortality by a factor of 5.34, while the increase by ozone trends alone ranges between factors of 1.48 and 1.7. Ambient ozone pollution under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario is projected to become a significant human health risk factor. Yet, optimizing living conditions and healthcare standards worldwide to the optimal ones today (application of minimum baseline mortality rates) will help mitigate the adverse consequences associated with population growth and ageing, and ozone increases caused by pollution emissions and climate change.
英文关键词	ozone; excess mortality; human health; climate change; anthropogenic emissions; population; CMIP6
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001159683000001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308287
作者单位	Max Planck Society; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre; University of Exeter; University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; University of Helsinki; University of Leeds; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Akritidis, Dimitris,Bacer, Sara,Zanis, Prodromos,et al. Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario[J],2024,19(2).
APA	Akritidis, Dimitris.,Bacer, Sara.,Zanis, Prodromos.,Georgoulias, Aristeidis K..,Chowdhury, Sourangsu.,...&Pozzer, Andrea.(2024).Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(2).
MLA	Akritidis, Dimitris,et al."Strong increase in mortality attributable to ozone pollution under a climate change and demographic scenario".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.2(2024).