气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing changes in global fire regimes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1186/s42408-023-00237-9
	Assessing changes in global fire regimes
	Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Vanniere, Boris; Leys, Berangere; Colombaroli, Daniele; Romera, Graciela Gil; Slowinski, Michal; Aleman, Julie C.; Blarquez, Olivier; Feurdean, Angelica; Brown, Kendrick; Aakala, Tuomas; Alenius, Teija; Allen, Kathryn; Andric, Maja; Bergeron, Yves; Biagioni, Siria; Bradshaw, Richard; Bremond, Laurent; Brisset, Elodie; Brooks, Joseph; Brugger, Sandra O.; Brussel, Thomas; Cadd, Haidee; Cagliero, Eleonora; Carcaillet, Christopher; Carter, Vachel; Catry, Filipe X.; Champreux, Antoine; Chaste, Emeline; Chavardes, Raphael Daniel; Chipman, Melissa; Conedera, Marco; Connor, Simon; Constantine, Mark; Courtney Mustaphi, Colin; Dabengwa, Abraham N.; Daniels, William; De Boer, Erik; Dietze, Elisabeth; Estrany, Joan; Fernandes, Paulo; Finsinger, Walter; Flantua, Suzette G. A.; Fox-Hughes, Paul; Gaboriau, Dorian M.; Gayo, Eugenia M.; Girardin, Martin. P.; Glenn, Jeffrey; Glueckler, Ramesh; Gonzalez-Arango, Catalina; Groves, Mariangelica; Hamilton, Douglas S.; Hamilton, Rebecca Jenner; Hantson, Stijn; Hapsari, K. Anggi; Hardiman, Mark; Hawthorne, Donna; Hoffman, Kira; Inoue, Jun; Karp, Allison T.; Krebs, Patrik; Kulkarni, Charuta; Kuosmanen, Niina; Lacourse, Terri; Ledru, Marie-Pierre; Lestienne, Marion; Long, Colin; Lopez-Saez, Jose Antonio; Loughlin, Nicholas; Niklasson, Mats; Madrigal, Javier; Maezumi, S. Yoshi; Marcisz, Katarzyna; Mariani, Michela; McWethy, David; Meyer, Grant; Molinari, Chiara; Montoya, Encarni; Mooney, Scott; Morales-Molino, Cesar; Morris, Jesse; Moss, Patrick; Oliveras, Imma; Pereira, Jose Miguel; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris; Pickarski, Nadine; Pini, Roberta; Rehn, Emma; Remy, Cecile C.; Revelles, Jordi; Rius, Damien; Robin, Vincent; Ruan, Yanming; Rudaya, Natalia; Russell-Smith, Jeremy; Seppa, Heikki; Shumilovskikh, Lyudmila; Sommers, William T.; Tavsanoglu, Cagatay; Umbanhowar, Charles; Urquiaga, Erickson; Urrego, Dunia; Vachula, Richard S.; Wallenius, Tuomo; You, Chao; Daniau, Anne-Laure
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1933-9747
起始页码	20
结束页码	1
卷号	20 期号:1
英文摘要	Background The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Results Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. Conclusion The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.
英文关键词	Biome; Climate change; Ecosystem services; Expert assessment; Fire regime; Holocene; Management
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Forestry
WOS类目	Ecology ; Forestry
WOS记录号	WOS:001164935400002
来源期刊	FIRE ECOLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院青藏高原研究所
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308260
作者单位	Brigham Young University; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute of Ecology & Environment (INEE); Universite de Franche-Comte; Universite de Franche-Comte; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of Bern; University of Bern; Avignon Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); University of London; Royal Holloway University London; Philipps University Marburg; Polish Academy of Sciences; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); INRAE; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Aix-Marseille Universite; Universite de Montreal; Goethe University Frankfurt; Babes Bolyai University from Cluj; Natural Resources Canada; Canadian Forest Service; University of British Columbia; University of Eastern Finland; University of Turku; University of Tasmania; University of Melbourne; University of New South Wales Sydney; Slovenian Academy of Sciences ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara,Abbott, Benjamin W.,Vanniere, Boris,et al. Assessing changes in global fire regimes[J]. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所,2024,20(1).
APA	Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara.,Abbott, Benjamin W..,Vanniere, Boris.,Leys, Berangere.,Colombaroli, Daniele.,...&Daniau, Anne-Laure.(2024).Assessing changes in global fire regimes.FIRE ECOLOGY,20(1).
MLA	Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara,et al."Assessing changes in global fire regimes".FIRE ECOLOGY 20.1(2024).