气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A novel flood risk management approach based on future climate and land use change scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171204
	A novel flood risk management approach based on future climate and land use change scenarios
	Nguyen, Huu Duy; Nguyen, Quoc-Huy; Dang, Dinh Kha; Van, Chien Pham; Truong, Quang Hai; Pham, Si Dung; Bui, Quang-Thanh; Petrisor, Alexandru-Ionut
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
起始页码	921
卷号	921
英文摘要	Climate change and increasing urbanization are two primary factors responsible for the increased risk of serious flooding around the world. The prediction and monitoring of the effects of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on flood risk are critical steps in the development of appropriate strategies to reduce potential damage. This study aimed to develop a new approach by combining machine learning (namely the XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, and ExtraTree models) and hydraulic modeling to predict the effects of climate change and LULC change on land that is at risk of flooding. For the years 2005, 2020, 2035, and 2050, machine learning was used to model and predict flood susceptibility under different scenarios of LULC, while hydraulic modeling was used to model and predict flood depth and flood velocity, based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. The two elements were used to build a flood risk assessment, integrating socioeconomic data such as LULC, population density, poverty rate, number of women, number of schools, and cultivated area. Flood risk was then computed, using the analytical hierarchy process, by combining flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results showed that the area at high and very high flood risk increased rapidly, as did the areas of high/very high exposure, and high/very high vulnerability. They also showed how flood risk had increased rapidly from 2005 to 2020 and would continue to do so in 2035 and 2050, due to the dynamics of climate change and LULC change, population growth, the number of women, and the number of schools - particularly in the flood zone. The results highlight the relationships between flood risk and environmental and socio-economic changes and suggest that flood risk management strategies should also be integrated in future analyses. The map built in this study shows past and future flood risk, providing insights into the spatial distribution of urban area in flood zones and can be used to facilitate the development of priority measures, flood mitigation being most important.
英文关键词	Flood hazard; Flood risk; Flood exposure; Flood vulnerability; Machine learning; MIKE flood model; Vietnam
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001200265100001
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308250
作者单位	Vietnam National University Hanoi; Vietnam National University Hanoi; Thuyloi University; Ion Mincu University of Architecture & Urbanism; Technical University Moldova
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nguyen, Huu Duy,Nguyen, Quoc-Huy,Dang, Dinh Kha,et al. A novel flood risk management approach based on future climate and land use change scenarios[J],2024,921.
APA	Nguyen, Huu Duy.,Nguyen, Quoc-Huy.,Dang, Dinh Kha.,Van, Chien Pham.,Truong, Quang Hai.,...&Petrisor, Alexandru-Ionut.(2024).A novel flood risk management approach based on future climate and land use change scenarios.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,921.
MLA	Nguyen, Huu Duy,et al."A novel flood risk management approach based on future climate and land use change scenarios".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 921(2024).