气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stationarity of High- and Low-Flows Under Climate Change and Human Interventions Across Global Catchments

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DOI	10.1029/2023EA003456
	Stationarity of High- and Low-Flows Under Climate Change and Human Interventions Across Global Catchments
	Wang, Zhengrong; Yang, Yuting
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2333-5084
起始页码	11
结束页码	1
卷号	11 期号:1
英文摘要	The assumption of stationarity is fundamental for predicting future hydrologic changes based on historical data. Here we present the first global-scale, observation-based assessment of long-term stationarity in annual streamflow extremes (i.e., maximum and minimum monthly streamflow, or Qmax and Qmin). Observational evidence from 11,069 catchments worldwide reveal that Qmax and Qmin series remain stationary in approximately 93% and 67% of catchments exclusively influenced by climate change, respectively, indicating that climate change alone has not disrupted stationarity in annual streamflow extremes. In contrast, these proportions decrease to 76% and 44% for catchments subjected to direct human interventions, with the prevalence of non-stationary Qmax and Qmin series generally increasing in tandem with the degree of human interventions. These findings provide valuable quantitative insights into the extent of hydrologic extreme alterations caused by human activities and emphasize the need for adaptive measures to mitigate direct human impacts on the hydrological system. Understanding stationarity in streamflow series is crucial for predicting future hydrological changes based on historical data. This study provides the first global assessment of long-term stationarity of annual streamflow extremes, specifically the highest (Qmax) and lowest (Qmin) monthly streamflow. By analyzing streamflow observations from 11,069 catchments worldwide, we find that the stationarity of historical Qmax and Qmin series remain in a majority of catchments predominantly influenced by climate change, indicating that historical climate change alone has not disrupted the predictability of these extreme streamflows. However, in catchments where human activities like irrigation, dam construction, or urban development have directly intervened, the prevalence of non-stationary annual Qmax and Qmin series is 3.9 and 1.7 times greater than in natural catchments, respectively. This underscores the substantial impact of human modifications on the terrestrial water cycle, highlighting the need for comprehensive measures to manage these alterations effectively. Stationarity of historical annual streamflow extremes across 11,069 catchments globally is assessedAnnual maximum and minimum monthly streamflow remain stationary in 93% and 67% of catchments solely affected by climate changeDirect human intervention/s has substantially disrupted the stationarity in the annual extreme streamflow series
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geology
WOS类目	Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001144206800001
来源期刊	EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308239
作者单位	Tsinghua University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Zhengrong,Yang, Yuting. Stationarity of High- and Low-Flows Under Climate Change and Human Interventions Across Global Catchments[J],2024,11(1).
APA	Wang, Zhengrong,&Yang, Yuting.(2024).Stationarity of High- and Low-Flows Under Climate Change and Human Interventions Across Global Catchments.EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE,11(1).
MLA	Wang, Zhengrong,et al."Stationarity of High- and Low-Flows Under Climate Change and Human Interventions Across Global Catchments".EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE 11.1(2024).