Climate Change Data Portal
| DOI | 10.1007/s10584-023-03650-w |
| Assessing the potential risks of climate change on the natural capital of six countries resulting from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0165-0009 |
| EISSN | 1573-1480 |
| 起始页码 | 177 |
| 结束页码 | 3 |
| 卷号 | 177期号:3 |
| 英文摘要 | We present the results from a new framework providing an assessment of how climate change risks to natural capital accrue with warming of 1.5-4 degrees C in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India). Unlike typical biodiversity and climate change studies, this assessment also considers landcover and population changes across a range of 17 ecosystem services. The potential impacts of climate change (alone) on natural capital at 1.5 degrees C is greatest in Brazil and least in Ghana. However, when population and landcover change are included, areas projected to be at high natural capital risk begin to accrue by 1.5 degrees C in all countries. By 2 degrees C, Ethiopia and Ghana show increasing areas at high risk, even though they are at low risk owing to climate alone. Thus, current impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services and changes in potential demand coupled with warming exceed changes projected by climate alone. However, this also indicates that there is adaptation potential, especially with warming of < 2 degrees C, to reduce risk through restoring habitat. At lower levels of warming, targeted restoration of marginal agricultural habitats would increase the bank of natural capital for use by people and provide support for remaining agricultural lands. By 3 degrees C, the adaptation potential from restoration is substantially less: < 1% in Brazil, India and Egypt; 7-8% in China and Ethiopia; but still 26% in Ghana. This indicates that restoration as an adaptation option for biodiversity, and thus, natural capital, rapidly decreases with increasing temperatures. By 2100, factoring in population change (SSP2), current ecological footprint, and current landcover, even with only 1.5 degrees C warming, large parts of Brazil, eastern China, most of Egypt, much of Ethiopia, southwestern Ghana (except for protected areas), and most of India are at high to extreme natural capital risk with an adaptation deficit potentially equating to a soft adaptation limit. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate change; Risk; Natural capital; Ecosystem services |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001173204300007 |
| 来源期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308232 |
| 作者单位 | University of East Anglia; James Cook University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Assessing the potential risks of climate change on the natural capital of six countries resulting from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels[J],2024,177(3). |
| APA | (2024).Assessing the potential risks of climate change on the natural capital of six countries resulting from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels.CLIMATIC CHANGE,177(3). |
| MLA | "Assessing the potential risks of climate change on the natural capital of six countries resulting from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels".CLIMATIC CHANGE 177.3(2024). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
| 个性服务 |
| 推荐该条目 |
| 保存到收藏夹 |
| 导出为Endnote文件 |
| 谷歌学术 |
| 谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
| 百度学术 |
| 百度学术中相似的文章 |
| 必应学术 |
| 必应学术中相似的文章 |
| 相关权益政策 |
| 暂无数据 |
| 收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
