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| DOI | 10.2166/wcc.2024.562 |
| Hydroclimatic projection: statistical learning and downscaling model for rainfall and runoff forecasting | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 2040-2244 |
| EISSN | 2408-9354 |
| 英文摘要 | The study is carried out to investigate the surface runoff depth with changing precipitation due to climate change in the study area where sandy loam and loamy soil are dominant. In this study, future rainfall is projected by a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) using a set of predictors derived from a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate model (GCM) [the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)] with updated scenarios SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Daily rainfall values for the observed period (1981 to 2014) are validated using statistical learning and evaluated with matrices, namely, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), which are found to be valid for further predictions. Rainfall projections show a decrease in rainfall trend by 50% from 2030 to 2040 for scenario SSP 4.5 and an increase of 7% from 2040 to 2050. Predicted rainfall for scenario SSP 8.5 shows a similar trend of decreasing rainfall by 24% for the period 2030-2040 and an increase by 19% in the period 2040-2050. Furthermore, these rainfall values are spatially modelled in a geographic information system (GIS) and rainfall maps are obtained. The obtained rainfall map, land-use map, and soil map are overlaid to compute curve numbers and runoff depths. A similar trend of decrease in runoff is observed for the period 2030-2050. The overall trend of climate change shows a water-stressed scenario. |
| 英文关键词 | climate change; future surface runoff; hydrological assessment; NorESM; SDSM; statistical learning |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
| WOS类目 | Water Resources |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001145570700001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308206 |
| 作者单位 | Manipal University Jaipur; Graphic Era University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Hydroclimatic projection: statistical learning and downscaling model for rainfall and runoff forecasting[J],2024. |
| APA | (2024).Hydroclimatic projection: statistical learning and downscaling model for rainfall and runoff forecasting.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE. |
| MLA | "Hydroclimatic projection: statistical learning and downscaling model for rainfall and runoff forecasting".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE (2024). |
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