气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sensitivity of Runoff to Climatic Factors and the Attribution of Runoff Variation in the Upper Shule River, North-West China

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DOI	10.3390/w16091272
	Sensitivity of Runoff to Climatic Factors and the Attribution of Runoff Variation in the Upper Shule River, North-West China
	Jia, Ling; Niu, Zuirong; Zhang, Rui; Ma, Yali
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4441
起始页码	16
结束页码	9
卷号	16 期号:9
英文摘要	Climate change and human activities exert significant impact on the mechanism of runoff generation and confluence. Comprehending the reasons of runoff change is crucial for the sustainable development of water resources. Taking the Upper Shule River as the research area, the M-K test and the moving t test were used to diagnose the runoff mutation time. Furthermore, the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity method (SCRCQ), climate elasticity method, and Budyko equation were utilized to quantitatively evaluate the impacts and contribution rates of climate change and human activities. The following results were obtained: (1) The Upper Shule River experienced a significant increase in runoff from 1972 to 2021, with 1998 marking the year of abrupt change. (2) The runoff sensitivity showed a downward trend from 1972 to 2021. The main factor affecting the decrease in runoff sensitivity was the characteristic parameters of underlying surface (n), followed by precipitation (P), while the influence of potential evapotranspiration (ET0) was the weakest. (3) The response of runoff changes to runoff sensitivity and influencing factors were 90.32% and 9.68%, respectively. (4) The results of three attribution methods indicated that climate change was the primary factor causing the alteration of runoff in the Upper Shule River. The research results supplement the hydrological change mechanisms of the Upper Shule River and provide a scientific basis for future water resources management and flood control measures.
英文关键词	Budyko equation; runoff sensitivity; attribution analysis; climate change; Upper Shule River
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001220020600001
来源期刊	WATER
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308199
作者单位	Gansu Agricultural University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jia, Ling,Niu, Zuirong,Zhang, Rui,et al. Sensitivity of Runoff to Climatic Factors and the Attribution of Runoff Variation in the Upper Shule River, North-West China[J],2024,16(9).
APA	Jia, Ling,Niu, Zuirong,Zhang, Rui,&Ma, Yali.(2024).Sensitivity of Runoff to Climatic Factors and the Attribution of Runoff Variation in the Upper Shule River, North-West China.WATER,16(9).
MLA	Jia, Ling,et al."Sensitivity of Runoff to Climatic Factors and the Attribution of Runoff Variation in the Upper Shule River, North-West China".WATER 16.9(2024).