气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of Climate Change in Baja California Winegrape Yield

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DOI	10.3390/cli12020014
	Impacts of Climate Change in Baja California Winegrape Yield
	Hernandez Garcia, Marilina; Garza-Lagler, Maria Cristina; Cavazos, Tereza; Espejel, Ileana
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2225-1154
起始页码	12
结束页码	2
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	We analyzed climate change scenarios and their possible impacts on winegrape yield in Baja California, the leading wine producer in Mexico. Linear regression models were used to predict the current yield based on climate and economic variables. Using future projections of the climate variables from two regional climate models (RegCM and RCA4), we evaluated the possible changes in yield for the Near Future (NF: 2021-2040) and Intermediate Future (IF: 2041-2060) periods under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. One regression model includes maximum and minimum temperatures (Tx and Tn) of the winegrape growing season and accumulated winter precipitation (Pre), and the other model also includes the real minimum wage and winegrape price to evaluate the operating cost paid by producers. The results show that the linear regression model with the climatic and economic variables explains 28% of the winegrape yield, and Tx and Tn had the greatest influence. The climate change scenarios show that during the winegrape growing season, these variables could increase more than 1 degrees C in the NF and more than 2 degrees C in the IF under the RCP8.5 scenario. These latter temperature changes could reduce the yield between 18% and 35% relative to the reference observed climate dataset (Livneh). However, winegrape yield is sensitive to economic factors, as the yield reduction increases at least 3% in all cases. Thus, adaptation strategies need to be implemented in the viticulture sector to reduce future impacts.
英文关键词	winegrape; climate change; Baja California viticulture; global warming
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001172441400001
来源期刊	CLIMATE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308174
作者单位	Universidad Autonoma de Baja California; CIAD - Centro de Investigacion en Alimentacion y Desarrollo; CICESE - Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hernandez Garcia, Marilina,Garza-Lagler, Maria Cristina,Cavazos, Tereza,et al. Impacts of Climate Change in Baja California Winegrape Yield[J],2024,12(2).
APA	Hernandez Garcia, Marilina,Garza-Lagler, Maria Cristina,Cavazos, Tereza,&Espejel, Ileana.(2024).Impacts of Climate Change in Baja California Winegrape Yield.CLIMATE,12(2).
MLA	Hernandez Garcia, Marilina,et al."Impacts of Climate Change in Baja California Winegrape Yield".CLIMATE 12.2(2024).