气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Vietnam's Long-run Growth: Connecting the Dots through Climate Damage Spillovers

CCPortal

DOI	10.11130/jei.2024003
	Vietnam's Long-run Growth: Connecting the Dots through Climate Damage Spillovers
	Mania, Elodie; Nguyen, Thi Thu-Ha; Rieber, Arsene; Tran, Thi Anh-Dao
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1225-651X
EISSN	1976-5525
起始页码	39
结束页码	1
卷号	39 期号:1
英文摘要	We propose to examine how climate damage may transform Vietnam's long-run growth rate. Because of cross-country linkages forged by bilateral trade, there are two channels through which international damage spillovers may occur. First, the dynamics of partners' growth determine future trends in Vietnam's volume of exports. Second, since the domestic impact of climate change may be heterogeneous across countries, there will be a differentiated impact on export and import market shares. Both terms play a critical role in changing trade patterns that are likely to shift Vietnam's external constraint. This demand-side view of growth based on the balance-of-payments constraint is a powerful predictor of inter-country growth differences. Our study show that the consequences of climate change could equate to a 2.5% reduction in Vietnam's growth rate over the period 2020-2060. Our decomposition exercise by effect and by partner area shows that international damage spillovers result from very different individual behaviours.
英文关键词	balance-of-payments-constrained growth model; climate change adaptation; international damage spillovers; macroeconomic resilience; Vietnam
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
WOS类目	Economics
WOS记录号	WOS:001186343000009
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/308041
作者单位	Universite de Rouen Normandie; The World Bank; Universite de Rouen Normandie; The World Bank
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mania, Elodie,Nguyen, Thi Thu-Ha,Rieber, Arsene,et al. Vietnam's Long-run Growth: Connecting the Dots through Climate Damage Spillovers[J],2024,39(1).
APA	Mania, Elodie,Nguyen, Thi Thu-Ha,Rieber, Arsene,&Tran, Thi Anh-Dao.(2024).Vietnam's Long-run Growth: Connecting the Dots through Climate Damage Spillovers.JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION,39(1).
MLA	Mania, Elodie,et al."Vietnam's Long-run Growth: Connecting the Dots through Climate Damage Spillovers".JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION 39.1(2024).