气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality

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DOI	10.1080/23311932.2024.2347713
	The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality
	Warsame, Abdimalik Ali; Abdukadir Sheik-Ali, Ibrahim; Hassan, Abdullahi Abdirahman; Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2331-1932
起始页码	10
结束页码	1
卷号	10 期号:1
英文摘要	Global food insecurity is projected to increase in distant years, which is challenging to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2, viz. zero hunger in 2030. However, recent reports and studies suggest that climate variabilities and conflicts are the main hurdles developing and less developed nations face to overcome food insecurity and hunger. This undertaking assesses the effect of climate change and conflicts (external and internal conflicts) on food security in Somalia. To this end, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and time-varying Granger causality are utilized with annual data spanning 1985-2016. The empirical results show that average temperature and internal conflicts significantly hamper food security whereas rainfall and external conflicts are statistically insignificant in the long run. Besides, the time-varying Granger causality reveals that annual rainfall and temperature uniformly cause food security in two episodes (i.e. 1990-1992 and 2011-2012). Notably, Somalia experienced severe droughts which later led to a famine in 1992 and 2011. Similarly, both internal and external conflicts Granger cause food security in two similar episodes (i.e. 1990-1991 and 2010-2015). Our study underscores the importance of de-escalating the prolonged conflicts in Somalia and the need for designing policies that improve water availability to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.
英文关键词	Somalia; climate change; conflicts; food security; time-varying causality; ARDL; D74; Q11; Q18; M. Luisa Escudero-Gilete, Universidad de Sevilla, Spain; Sustainable Development; Environmental Economics; Statistics for Social Sciences
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
WOS类目	Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001217223900001
来源期刊	COGENT FOOD & AGRICULTURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307930
作者单位	Nord University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Warsame, Abdimalik Ali,Abdukadir Sheik-Ali, Ibrahim,Hassan, Abdullahi Abdirahman,et al. The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality[J],2024,10(1).
APA	Warsame, Abdimalik Ali,Abdukadir Sheik-Ali, Ibrahim,Hassan, Abdullahi Abdirahman,&Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu.(2024).The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality.COGENT FOOD & AGRICULTURE,10(1).
MLA	Warsame, Abdimalik Ali,et al."The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality".COGENT FOOD & AGRICULTURE 10.1(2024).