气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global Future Climate Signal by Latitudes Using CMIP6 GCMs

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2022EF003183
	Global Future Climate Signal by Latitudes Using CMIP6 GCMs
	Song, Young Hoon; Chung, Eun-Sung; Shahid, Shamsuddin
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2328-4277
起始页码	12
结束页码	3
卷号	12 期号:3
英文摘要	This study estimated global climate change signals at different latitudes for four main Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Five evaluation metrics were integrated using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution to quantify the historical reproducibility of 25 CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation and Climatic Research Unit temperature as the reference. The most suitable GCMs for simulating climate over different latitudes, selected based on evaluation metrics, were used to prepare a multimodel ensemble and project the future annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature in the near (2031-2065) and far future (2066-2100). The results showed that GCMs estimated the historical mean temperature efficiently but underestimated the monthly precipitation compared to the reference data. The changes in precipitation and temperature at mid-latitudes (N45.5 degrees-60 degrees) showed the highest variability for all scenarios. The maximum increases in both climate variables for SSP5-8.5 were 80.5% and 4.8% at N45.5 degrees-60 degrees, respectively. In contrast, the temperature and precipitation at S30.5 degrees-45 degrees revealed a decreasing pattern. Mid-latitude winter (S30.5 degrees-45 degrees) would be drier in the future than in the base period (1980-2014). This study showed that precipitation variability and the mean temperature in the northern hemisphere would be larger for SSPs with higher radiative forcing. Therefore, the results of this study help improve knowledge of global future climate change by latitudes. Climate change is already contributing to various unpredictable phenomena in many fields. A well-known organization that periodically evaluates the impacts of climate change and actionable response strategies, the IPCC assessment report states that climate change is already directly impacting ecosystems, water cycles, and human activities. Therefore, sufficient exploration of the future climate change is vital for systematically developing a plan for climate change mitigation and adaptation, and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario contains various factors such as social, economic, and physics, making it reasonable for projecting the future climate. This study evaluated the historical monthly temperature and precipitation reproducibility of CMIP6 General Circulation Model (GCM) using various metrics. Based on this, multi-model ensemble was built using Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, a multi-criteria decision-making technique, for a reasonable future climate assessment. The results of this study showed that the monthly precipitation of CMIP6 GCM over the historical period is overestimated than the reference data, but the monthly temperature performance is stable. For projected future climate, high latitudes in the northern hemisphere are most vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, and the southern hemisphere captured robust dryness for the future. General Circulation Models' performances are different by each latitude and their simulations were overestimated for rainfall and well-estimated for temperature The region in N75-N90 would be most vulnerable to climate change in the future, and the area in S30-S60 would be drier in the future Variability of the northern hemisphere would increase more for high emission scenarios but seasonal trends are more chaotic than in the past
英文关键词	CMIP6; shared socioeconomic pathway; general circulation model; future climate signal; latitudinal variation; multi-model ensemble
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001179194700001
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307872
作者单位	Seoul National University of Science & Technology; Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song, Young Hoon,Chung, Eun-Sung,Shahid, Shamsuddin. Global Future Climate Signal by Latitudes Using CMIP6 GCMs[J],2024,12(3).
APA	Song, Young Hoon,Chung, Eun-Sung,&Shahid, Shamsuddin.(2024).Global Future Climate Signal by Latitudes Using CMIP6 GCMs.EARTHS FUTURE,12(3).
MLA	Song, Young Hoon,et al."Global Future Climate Signal by Latitudes Using CMIP6 GCMs".EARTHS FUTURE 12.3(2024).