气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamic quantitative assessment of multiple uncertainty sources in future hydropower generation prediction of cascade reservoirs with hydrological variations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.energy.2024.131447
	Dynamic quantitative assessment of multiple uncertainty sources in future hydropower generation prediction of cascade reservoirs with hydrological variations
	Zhou, Shuai; Wang, Yimin; Su, Hui; Chang, Jianxia; Huang, Qiang; Li, Ziyan
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0360-5442
EISSN	1873-6785
起始页码	299
卷号	299
英文摘要	Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source, which can significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions while providing electric energy. It is a crucial way to achieve the dual-carbon goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. However, climate change inevitably threatens hydropower, either directly or indirectly. Global climate models (GCMs) and hydrological models (HMs) under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been combined to investigate future hydropower generation responses to climate change. The contribution of multiple uncertainty sources to multi-scale hydropower generation uncertainties with hydrological variations remains unclear. Therefore, to address the above challenge, a three-step framework was proposed in this paper: (1) predicting future inflows to reservoirs using three HMs (HBV, SWAT and XAJ) with different structures driven by six GCMs (BNU-ESM, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and CSIRO-MK3-6-0) under three RCPs (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5); (2) diagnosing future hydrological conditions using the Comprehensive Differential Split-sample Test; (3) predicting future hydropower generation of cascade reservoirs by developing a cascade hydropower generation model and dynamically quantifying the contribution of multiple uncertainty sources to multi-scale hydropower generation uncertainties with hydrological conditions based on the variance decomposition method through subsampling. The results indicate that GCMs, HMs, climate emission scenarios and their interactions significantly impacted the uncertainty of hydropower generation with hydrological variations. In the flood season, the relative contributions of GCMs and HMs were the largest, accounting for about 40 %. The interaction effects of multiple uncertainty sources gradually increased before, after and during the non-flood season, with its relative contribution accounting for about 36 %. These findings can facilitate the active response to the new challenges of strategic hydropower energy development under climate change, reducing the losses caused by climate change.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS类目	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS记录号	WOS:001227842000001
来源期刊	ENERGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307843
作者单位	Hebei University of Engineering; Xi'an University of Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou, Shuai,Wang, Yimin,Su, Hui,et al. Dynamic quantitative assessment of multiple uncertainty sources in future hydropower generation prediction of cascade reservoirs with hydrological variations[J],2024,299.
APA	Zhou, Shuai,Wang, Yimin,Su, Hui,Chang, Jianxia,Huang, Qiang,&Li, Ziyan.(2024).Dynamic quantitative assessment of multiple uncertainty sources in future hydropower generation prediction of cascade reservoirs with hydrological variations.ENERGY,299.
MLA	Zhou, Shuai,et al."Dynamic quantitative assessment of multiple uncertainty sources in future hydropower generation prediction of cascade reservoirs with hydrological variations".ENERGY 299(2024).