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DOI	10.2166/wpt.2024.010
	Estimation of non-stationary return levels of extreme temperature by CMIP6 models
	Mohammadi, Tayybeh; Moghaddasi, Mahnoosh; Anvari, Sedigheh; Aziz, Rizwan
发表日期	2024
EISSN	1751-231X
起始页码	19
结束页码	2
卷号	19 期号:2
英文摘要	This study aims to investigate the effects of climate change on the return level of extreme maximum temperature (EMT) events in Iran. To this end, the Climate Research Unit-gridded dataset was used to collect EMT for the 1901-2014 period, and future data were projected from four available CMIP6 models, where the BCC-CSM2-MR model performed best under the latest SSP-RCP emission scenarios for the 2015-2100 period. The non-stationary state of the distribution was considered under three generalized extreme value (GEV) models: GEV0 (location and scale parameters are constant), GEV1 (non-stationary in location), and GEV2 (non-stationary in both location and scale) based on the evaluation criteria. The findings indicate that when using a non-stationary approach and considering the SSP5-8.5 scenario for a 2-year return period, the return level of extreme temperature increased by up to +4 degrees C compared to the stationary approach, while considering a non-stationary approach without climate change, the increase in the return level of extreme temperature was much smaller (up to +0.7 degrees C). MCMC and DEMC showed no significant differences and demonstrated that all stations are non-stationary in terms of the location parameter (GEV1). Also, the joint set of the total period of historical data and future data was the best dataset based on convergence with GEV1. HIGHLIGHTS Temperature frequency was analyzed based on the Bayesian method (MCMC and DEMC) under three generalized extreme value models. The impact of the non-stationary approach was investigated on the return level of maximum temperatures during historical and future periods. Intra-period trends were assessed in the extreme temperature due to climate change (CMIP6).
英文关键词	climate change; extreme temperature; Iran; non-stationary analysis; return period
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001155681200001
来源期刊	WATER PRACTICE AND TECHNOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307798
作者单位	Arak University; Arak University; Graduate University of Advanced Technology; University of Punjab
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mohammadi, Tayybeh,Moghaddasi, Mahnoosh,Anvari, Sedigheh,et al. Estimation of non-stationary return levels of extreme temperature by CMIP6 models[J],2024,19(2).
APA	Mohammadi, Tayybeh,Moghaddasi, Mahnoosh,Anvari, Sedigheh,&Aziz, Rizwan.(2024).Estimation of non-stationary return levels of extreme temperature by CMIP6 models.WATER PRACTICE AND TECHNOLOGY,19(2).
MLA	Mohammadi, Tayybeh,et al."Estimation of non-stationary return levels of extreme temperature by CMIP6 models".WATER PRACTICE AND TECHNOLOGY 19.2(2024).