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| DOI | 10.3390/ani14101453 |
| Assessment of Suitable Habitat of the Demoiselle Crane (Anthropoides virgo) in the Wake of Climate Change: A Study of Its Wintering Refugees in Pakistan | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 2076-2615 |
| 起始页码 | 14 |
| 结束页码 | 10 |
| 卷号 | 14期号:10 |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change and global warming have effects on every ecosystem and have caused huge losses in global biodiversity. This study identified that currently, the study area explored in this work provides a good quantity (around 35%) of suitable habitat for the Demoiselle Crane. The most influential factors determining Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density as significant contributors. Under changing climate scenarios, the study predicted a major loss of species current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and movement towards western-central areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan boarder. The inevitable impacts of climate change have reverberated across ecosystems and caused substantial global biodiversity loss. Climate-induced habitat loss has contributed to range shifts at both species and community levels. Given the importance of identifying suitable habitats for at-risk species, it is imperative to assess potential current and future distributions, and to understand influential environmental factors. Like many species, the Demoiselle crane is not immune to climatic pressures. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in Pakistan are known wintering grounds for this species. Given that Pakistan is among the top five countries facing devastating effects of climate change, this study sought to conduct species distribution modeling under climate change using data collected during 4 years of field surveys. We developed a Maximum Entropy distribution model to predict the current and projected future distribution of the species across the study area. Future habitat projections for 2050 and 2070 were carried out using two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) under three global circulation models, including HADGEM2-AO, BCC-CSM1-1, and CCSM4. The most influential factors shaping Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density, all of which contributed significantly to the suitability (81.3%). The model identified 35% of the study area as moderately suitable (134,068 km(2)) and highly suitable (27,911 km(2)) habitat for the species under current climatic conditions. Under changing climate scenarios, our model predicted a major loss of the species' current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and shift towards western-central areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan boarder. The RCP 8.5, which is the extreme climate change scenario, portrays particularly severe consequences, with habitat losses reaching 65% in 2050 and 85% in 2070. This comprehensive study provides useful insights into the Demoiselle Crane habitat's current and future dynamics in Pakistan. |
| 英文关键词 | climate change; migratory routs; stopovers; species habitat; KP; Baluchistan; Pakistan |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Agriculture ; Veterinary Sciences ; Zoology |
| WOS类目 | Agriculture, Dairy & Animal Science ; Veterinary Sciences ; Zoology |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001234853000001 |
| 来源期刊 | ANIMALS
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307669 |
| 作者单位 | Guangdong Academy of Sciences; Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences; Gomal University; Northeast Forestry University - China; Hainan University; Hainan University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Assessment of Suitable Habitat of the Demoiselle Crane (Anthropoides virgo) in the Wake of Climate Change: A Study of Its Wintering Refugees in Pakistan[J],2024,14(10). |
| APA | (2024).Assessment of Suitable Habitat of the Demoiselle Crane (Anthropoides virgo) in the Wake of Climate Change: A Study of Its Wintering Refugees in Pakistan.ANIMALS,14(10). |
| MLA | "Assessment of Suitable Habitat of the Demoiselle Crane (Anthropoides virgo) in the Wake of Climate Change: A Study of Its Wintering Refugees in Pakistan".ANIMALS 14.10(2024). |
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