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| DOI | 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101822 |
| Prediction of extreme rainfall events in 21st century - The results based on Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 2212-0955 |
| 起始页码 | 53 |
| 卷号 | 53 |
| 英文摘要 | The escalation of climate change caused more extreme rainfall, increasing flood damage in Japan since around 2010. Therefore, it is crucial to examine climate change's impact on extreme rainfall events over the past 100 years and assess whether the existing return level standards effectively address the requirements for mitigating urban flood risks in the present scenario. The annual maximum hourly rainfall data from six major cities in Japan are divided into two distinct periods: 1921-1970 and 1971-2020. These datasets were then subjected to fitting with the Generalized Extreme Value distribution using two methods: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The results demonstrate that the MCMC method provides more precise and accurate estimates, resulting in a narrower range of uncertainty for the high period of interest. Furthermore, the return levels for the 100-year return period in Nagoya and Fukuoka, based on the data for 1971-2020, are 24.4 mm/h and 13.4 mm/h greater than the corresponding standard values, respectively. This suggests significant changes in extreme rainfall patterns in certain cities in Japan and highlights the need for Nagoya and Fukuoka to update their criteria for return levels based on the latest rainfall data using the MCMC method. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate change; Extreme precipitation; Maximum hourly rainfall data; Return periods analysis; Disaster risk reduction |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001180516600001 |
| 来源期刊 | URBAN CLIMATE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307650 |
| 作者单位 | Osaka Metropolitan University; University of Tokyo; Osaka Metropolitan University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Prediction of extreme rainfall events in 21st century - The results based on Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo[J],2024,53. |
| APA | (2024).Prediction of extreme rainfall events in 21st century - The results based on Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo.URBAN CLIMATE,53. |
| MLA | "Prediction of extreme rainfall events in 21st century - The results based on Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo".URBAN CLIMATE 53(2024). |
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