气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A CMIP6 Multi-Model Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Severe Meteorological Droughts through Multiple Drought Indices-Case Study of Iran's Metropolises

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/w16050711
	A CMIP6 Multi-Model Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Severe Meteorological Droughts through Multiple Drought Indices-Case Study of Iran's Metropolises
	Afsari, Rasoul; Nazari-Sharabian, Mohammad; Hosseini, Ali; Karakouzian, Moses
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4441
起始页码	16
结束页码	5
卷号	16 期号:5
英文摘要	This study extensively explores the impact of climate change on meteorological droughts within metropolises in Iran. Focused on Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, and Tabriz, this research employed CMIP6 climate models under varying climate change scenarios (SSPs) to forecast severe meteorological droughts spanning the period from 2025 to 2100. The investigation utilized a diverse set of drought indices (SPI, DI, PN, CZI, MCZI, RAI, and ZSI) to assess the drought severity in each city. This study is crucial as it addresses the pressing concerns of rapidly decreasing water levels in Iran's dams, serious declines in underground aquifers, and the compounding issues of land subsidence and soil erosion due to excessive groundwater withdrawal in the face of severe droughts. This study culminated in the generation of box plots and heatmaps based on the results. These visual representations elucidated the distribution of the drought values under different indices and scenarios and provided a depiction of the probability of severe drought occurrences until the end of the century for each city. The resulting findings serve as invaluable tools, furnishing policymakers with informed insights to proactively manage and fortify metropolitan resilience against the evolving challenges posed by a changing climate.
英文关键词	climate change; drought; CMIP6; metropolises; Iran
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001183001600001
来源期刊	WATER
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307578
作者单位	West Virginia State University; University of Tehran; Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Las Vegas
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Afsari, Rasoul,Nazari-Sharabian, Mohammad,Hosseini, Ali,et al. A CMIP6 Multi-Model Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Severe Meteorological Droughts through Multiple Drought Indices-Case Study of Iran's Metropolises[J],2024,16(5).
APA	Afsari, Rasoul,Nazari-Sharabian, Mohammad,Hosseini, Ali,&Karakouzian, Moses.(2024).A CMIP6 Multi-Model Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Severe Meteorological Droughts through Multiple Drought Indices-Case Study of Iran's Metropolises.WATER,16(5).
MLA	Afsari, Rasoul,et al."A CMIP6 Multi-Model Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Severe Meteorological Droughts through Multiple Drought Indices-Case Study of Iran's Metropolises".WATER 16.5(2024).