气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs

CCPortal

DOI	10.3389/ffgc.2023.1286980
	Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs
	Povak, Nicholas A.; Manley, Patricia N.
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2624-893X
起始页码	6
卷号	6
英文摘要	As disturbances continue to increase in magnitude and severity under climate change, there is an urgency to develop climate-informed management solutions to increase resilience and help sustain the supply of ecosystem services over the long term. Towards this goal, we used climate analog modeling combined with logic-based conditions assessments to quantify the future resource stability (FRS) under mid-century climate. Analog models were developed for nine climate projections for 1 km cells across California. For each model, resource conditions were assessed at each focal cell in comparison to the top 100 climate analog locations using fuzzy logic. Model outputs provided a measure of support for the proposition that a given resource would be stable under future climate change. Raster outputs for six ecosystem resources exhibited a high degree of spatial variability in FRS that was largely driven by biophysical gradients across the State, and cross-correlation among resources suggested similarities in resource responses to climate change. Overall, about one-third of the State exhibited low stability indicating a lack of resilience and potential for resource losses over time. Areas most vulnerable to climate change occurred at lower elevations and/or in warmer winter and summer environments, whereas high stability occurred at higher elevation, or at mid-elevations with warmer summers and cooler winters. The modeling approach offered a replicable methodology to assess future resource stability across large regions and for multiple, diverse resources. Model outputs can be readily integrated into decision support systems to guide strategic management investments.
英文关键词	forest management; decision support; resilience; fuzzy logic; PROMOTe
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Forestry
WOS类目	Ecology ; Forestry
WOS记录号	WOS:001177978100001
来源期刊	FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307476
作者单位	United States Department of Agriculture (USDA); United States Forest Service
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Povak, Nicholas A.,Manley, Patricia N.. Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs[J],2024,6.
APA	Povak, Nicholas A.,&Manley, Patricia N..(2024).Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs.FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE,6.
MLA	Povak, Nicholas A.,et al."Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs".FRONTIERS IN FORESTS AND GLOBAL CHANGE 6(2024).