气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forecasting Urban Peak Water Demand Based on Climate Indices and Demographic Trends

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/w16010127
	Forecasting Urban Peak Water Demand Based on Climate Indices and Demographic Trends
	Stelzl, Anika; Fuchs-Hanusch, Daniela
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4441
起始页码	16
结束页码	1
卷号	16 期号:1
英文摘要	Austria's water utilities are facing new challenges due to advancing climate change. In recent years, changes in water demand have been observed. Water demand forecast models are required to assess these changes and react to them in a sustainable way. In this study, an existing modeling approach was extended with new climate indices. The multiple linear regression model was applied to different study sites. The model was trained with a training dataset and validated with a test dataset. The performance of the model was assessed using common parameters, such as the mean absolute percentage error. In a further step, the modeling approach was applied to climate projections to estimate the change in water demand for three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The change in water demand due to population growth was then considered and combined with the change due to climate change. RCP2.6 shows an average 14% increase in water demand for the period 2051-2070, with climate change (average increase of 0.7%) playing a negligible role. For RCP4.5, an increase of 16% is predicted, while the highest increase of 19% is observed in RCP8.5. Population growth is responsible for most of the increase.
英文关键词	urban water demand forecasting; MLR; climate change; RCPs; demographic development
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:001140624500001
来源期刊	WATER
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307468
作者单位	Graz University of Technology
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stelzl, Anika,Fuchs-Hanusch, Daniela. Forecasting Urban Peak Water Demand Based on Climate Indices and Demographic Trends[J],2024,16(1).
APA	Stelzl, Anika,&Fuchs-Hanusch, Daniela.(2024).Forecasting Urban Peak Water Demand Based on Climate Indices and Demographic Trends.WATER,16(1).
MLA	Stelzl, Anika,et al."Forecasting Urban Peak Water Demand Based on Climate Indices and Demographic Trends".WATER 16.1(2024).