气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Data-Driven Models to Forecast the Impact of Temperature Anomalies on Rice Production in Southeast Asia

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/forecast6010006
	Data-Driven Models to Forecast the Impact of Temperature Anomalies on Rice Production in Southeast Asia
	De Nardi, Sabrina; Carnevale, Claudio; Raccagni, Sara; Sangiorgi, Lucia
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2571-9394
起始页码	6
结束页码	1
卷号	6 期号:1
英文摘要	Models are a core element in performing local estimation of the climate change input. In this work, a novel approach to perform a fast downscaling of global temperature anomalies on a regional level is presented. The approach is based on a set of data-driven models linking global temperature anomalies and regional and global emissions to regional temperature anomalies. In particular, due to the limited number of available data, a linear autoregressive structure with exogenous input (ARX) has been considered. To demonstrate their relevance to the existing literature and context, the proposed ARX models have been employed to evaluate the impact of temperature anomalies on rice production in a socially, economically, and climatologically fragile area like Southeast Asia. The results show a significant impact on this region, with estimations strongly in accordance with information presented in the literature from different sources and scientific fields. The work represents a first step towards the development of a fast, data-driven, holistic approach to the climate change impact evaluation problem. The proposed ARX data-driven models reveal a novel and feasible way to downscale global temperature anomalies to regional levels, showing their importance in comprehending global temperature anomalies, emissions, and regional climatic conditions.
英文关键词	ARX models; information downscaling; rice production; climate change impacts
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001191612800001
来源期刊	FORECASTING
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307431
作者单位	University of Brescia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	De Nardi, Sabrina,Carnevale, Claudio,Raccagni, Sara,et al. Data-Driven Models to Forecast the Impact of Temperature Anomalies on Rice Production in Southeast Asia[J],2024,6(1).
APA	De Nardi, Sabrina,Carnevale, Claudio,Raccagni, Sara,&Sangiorgi, Lucia.(2024).Data-Driven Models to Forecast the Impact of Temperature Anomalies on Rice Production in Southeast Asia.FORECASTING,6(1).
MLA	De Nardi, Sabrina,et al."Data-Driven Models to Forecast the Impact of Temperature Anomalies on Rice Production in Southeast Asia".FORECASTING 6.1(2024).