气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting Runoff from the Weigan River under Climate Change

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/app14020541
	Predicting Runoff from the Weigan River under Climate Change
	Su, Jingwen; Zhang, Pei; Deng, Xiaoya; Ren, Cai; Zhang, Ji; Chen, Fulong; Long, Aihua
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2076-3417
起始页码	14
结束页码	2
卷号	14 期号:2
英文摘要	With the warming and humidification process in the Northwest Arid Zone over the past 30 years, the runoff of a vast majority of rivers has been affected to different degrees. In this paper, the runoff from the Weigan River, a typical inland river in the arid zone of Northwest China, is taken as an example, and seven types of CMIP6 data are selected with the help of a SWAT model to predict the runoff volume of the Weigan River in the next 30 years under climate change. The results show that (1) the SWAT model can simulate the runoff from the Weigan River well and has good applicability in this study area. (2) With an increase in radiative forcing, the temperature, precipitation and runoff in the study area show an increasing trend. (3) Under the four radiative forcing scenarios in 2030 and 2050, the runoff from the Weigan River out of the mountain is predicted to be maintained at 25.68 to 30.89 x 108 m3, which is an increase of 1.35% to 21.91% compared with the current runoff, of which the contribution to the increase in future runoff caused by the changes in temperature and precipitation is 68.71% and 27.24%, respectively. It is important to explore the impact of climate change on the runoff from the Weigan River to understand the impact of climate change on the Northwest Arid Region scientifically and rationally, and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the risk of climate change and formulating policies to deal with it.
英文关键词	CMIP6; model evaluation; SWAT model; deviation correction; Weigan River Basin
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Chemistry ; Engineering ; Materials Science ; Physics
WOS类目	Chemistry, Multidisciplinary ; Engineering, Multidisciplinary ; Materials Science, Multidisciplinary ; Physics, Applied
WOS记录号	WOS:001149004000001
来源期刊	APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307396
作者单位	Shihezi University; China Institute of Water Resources & Hydropower Research; Tianjin University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Su, Jingwen,Zhang, Pei,Deng, Xiaoya,et al. Predicting Runoff from the Weigan River under Climate Change[J],2024,14(2).
APA	Su, Jingwen.,Zhang, Pei.,Deng, Xiaoya.,Ren, Cai.,Zhang, Ji.,...&Long, Aihua.(2024).Predicting Runoff from the Weigan River under Climate Change.APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL,14(2).
MLA	Su, Jingwen,et al."Predicting Runoff from the Weigan River under Climate Change".APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 14.2(2024).