气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ecological niche modelling of Culicoides imicola and future range shifts under climate change scenarios in Italy

CCPortal

DOI	10.1111/mve.12730
	Ecological niche modelling of Culicoides imicola and future range shifts under climate change scenarios in Italy
	Del Lesto, Irene; Magliano, Adele; Casini, Riccardo; Ermenegildi, Arianna; Rombola, Pasquale; De Liberato, Claudio; Romiti, Federico
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0269-283X
EISSN	1365-2915
英文摘要	Culicoides imicola is the main vector of viral diseases of livestock in Europe such as bluetongue (BT), African horse sickness and epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Climatic factors are the main drivers of C. imicola occurrence and its distribution might be subject to rapid shifts due to climate change. Entomological data, collected during BT surveillance, and climatic/environmental variables were used to analyse ecological niche and to model C. imicola distribution and possible future range shifts in Italy. An ensemble technique was used to weigh the performance of machine learning, linear and profile methods. Updated future climate projections from the latest phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to generate future distributions for the next three 20-year periods, according to combinations of general circulation models and shared socioeconomic pathways and considering different climate change scenarios. Results indicated the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO 6) and precipitation of the driest-warmest months (BIO 14) as the main limiting climatic factors. Indeed, BIO 6 and BIO 14 reported the two highest values of variable importance, respectively, 9.16% (confidence interval [CI] = 7.99%-10.32%), and 2.01% (CI = 1.57%-2.44%). Under the worst-case scenario of climate change, C. imicola range is expected to expand northward and shift away from the coasts of central Italy, while in some areas of southern Italy, environmental suitability will decrease. Our results provide predictions of C. imicola distribution according to the most up-to-date future climate projections and should be of great use to surveillance management at regional and national scales.
英文关键词	climate change; CMIP6; Culicoides imicola; NDVI; remote sensing; species distribution model
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Entomology ; Veterinary Sciences
WOS类目	Entomology ; Veterinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001229909900001
来源期刊	MEDICAL AND VETERINARY ENTOMOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307331
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Del Lesto, Irene,Magliano, Adele,Casini, Riccardo,et al. Ecological niche modelling of Culicoides imicola and future range shifts under climate change scenarios in Italy[J],2024.
APA	Del Lesto, Irene.,Magliano, Adele.,Casini, Riccardo.,Ermenegildi, Arianna.,Rombola, Pasquale.,...&Romiti, Federico.(2024).Ecological niche modelling of Culicoides imicola and future range shifts under climate change scenarios in Italy.MEDICAL AND VETERINARY ENTOMOLOGY.
MLA	Del Lesto, Irene,et al."Ecological niche modelling of Culicoides imicola and future range shifts under climate change scenarios in Italy".MEDICAL AND VETERINARY ENTOMOLOGY (2024).