气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of the impacts of climate change on the construction of homogeneous climatic regions and ensemble climate projections using CMIP6 data over Pakistan

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107359
	Assessment of the impacts of climate change on the construction of homogeneous climatic regions and ensemble climate projections using CMIP6 data over Pakistan
	Abbas, Muhammad; Khan, Firdos; Liou, Yuei-An; Ullah, Hamd; Javed, Beenish; Ali, Shaukat
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0169-8095
EISSN	1873-2895
起始页码	304
卷号	304
英文摘要	In the 21 st century, the global environment faces significant threats due to climate change, ranging from floods and droughts to heat waves and other extreme weather events. In recent decades, Pakistan has experienced severe flooding and prolonged droughts, compounding challenges related to livelihoods, public health, and population displacement. The availability of precise and robust climate change information is paramount in addressing and mitigating the adverse impacts on a region ' s environment and its communities. The present study intends to assess the effects of climate change on the development of homogenous climate regions (HCRs) and then developed ensemble climate projections under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) using CMIP6 data. In the first step, HCRs were developed by integrating the cluster analysis approach and L -moment technique, identifying five distinct climatic regions. HCRs were developed using both observed data and ensemble baseline data which allowed us to thoroughly evaluate the ensemble data ' s performance. Subsequently, we extended our analysis to the future period (2015 - 2044) using ensemble climate data according to SSP2 - 4.5 and SSP5 - 8.5. Our findings indicate that, under both SSPs, certain stations exhibit discordant climatic trends in the future due to climate change. Ensemble climate projections were developed over each region for both SSPs for the duration of 2015 - 2044. A significant increase of 2 - 3.20 degrees C has been noted in the summer season in zone 3 and zone 5 (a region that has one of the world ' s largest glaciers) in maximum as well as minimum temperatures. Temperature has upward trend in the other region as well while precipitation has a mixed trend in all regions. The insights gleaned from this study hold significance and offer valuable guidance for decision-makers involved in water management, agricultural planning, and disaster management.
英文关键词	Climate Change; Ensemble projection; L-moments; Cluster analysis; K-fold cross-validation; Pakistan
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001223044700001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307323
作者单位	National University of Sciences & Technology - Pakistan; International Islamic University, Pakistan; University of Toronto; Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abbas, Muhammad,Khan, Firdos,Liou, Yuei-An,et al. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on the construction of homogeneous climatic regions and ensemble climate projections using CMIP6 data over Pakistan[J],2024,304.
APA	Abbas, Muhammad,Khan, Firdos,Liou, Yuei-An,Ullah, Hamd,Javed, Beenish,&Ali, Shaukat.(2024).Assessment of the impacts of climate change on the construction of homogeneous climatic regions and ensemble climate projections using CMIP6 data over Pakistan.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,304.
MLA	Abbas, Muhammad,et al."Assessment of the impacts of climate change on the construction of homogeneous climatic regions and ensemble climate projections using CMIP6 data over Pakistan".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 304(2024).