气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Developing climate change adaptation pathways in the agricultural sector based on robust decision-making approach (case study: Sefidroud Irrigation Network, Iran)

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10661-024-12511-7
	Developing climate change adaptation pathways in the agricultural sector based on robust decision-making approach (case study: Sefidroud Irrigation Network, Iran)
	Mehraban, Mohsen; Marghmaleki, Sajad Najafi; Sarang, Amin; Azar, Naser Arya
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0167-6369
EISSN	1573-2959
起始页码	196
结束页码	4
卷号	196 期号:4
英文摘要	Allocation of water in the situation of climate change presents various uncertainties. Consequently, decisions must be made to ensure stability and functionality across different climatic scenarios. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector, including a 5% increase in irrigation efficiency (S1) and a shift in irrigation method to Dry-DSR (direct seeded rice) under conditions of climatic uncertainty using a decision-making approach. The study focuses on the basin downstream of the Sefidroud dam, encompassing the Sefidroud irrigation and drainage network. Initially, basin modeling was conducted using the WEAP integrated management software for the period 2006-2020. Subsequently, the impact of climate change was assessed, considering RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios on surface water resources from 2021 to 2050. Runoff and cultivated area, both subject to uncertainty, were identified as key parameters. To evaluate strategy performance under different uncertainties and determine the efficacy of each strategy, regret and satisfaction approaches were employed. Results indicate a projected decrease in future rainfall by 3.5-11.8% compared to the base period, accompanied by an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures (0.83-1.62 degrees C and 1.15-1.33 degrees C, respectively). Inflow to the Sefidroud dam is expected to decrease by 13-28%. Presently, the Sefidroud irrigation and drainage network faces an annual deficit of 505.4 MCM, and if current trends persist with the impact of climate change, this shortfall may increase to 932.7 MCM annually. Furthermore, satisfaction indices for strategy (S2) are 0.77 in an optimistic scenario and 0.70 in strategy (S1). In a pessimistic scenario, these indices are 0.67 and 0.56, respectively. Notably, changing the irrigation method with Dry-DSR is recommended as a robust strategy, demonstrating the ability to maintain basin stability under a broad range of uncertainties and climate change scenarios. It is crucial to note that the results solely highlight the effects of climate change on water sources entering the Sefidroud dam. Considering anthropogenic activities upstream of the Sefidroud basin, water resource shortages are expected to increase. Therefore, reallocating water resources and implementing practical and appropriate measures in this area are imperative.
英文关键词	Climate change; Robust decision-making; Water resources management; WEAP model; Sefidroud River
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001187240200002
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307278
作者单位	University of Tehran; University of Tehran; University of Tabriz
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mehraban, Mohsen,Marghmaleki, Sajad Najafi,Sarang, Amin,et al. Developing climate change adaptation pathways in the agricultural sector based on robust decision-making approach (case study: Sefidroud Irrigation Network, Iran)[J],2024,196(4).
APA	Mehraban, Mohsen,Marghmaleki, Sajad Najafi,Sarang, Amin,&Azar, Naser Arya.(2024).Developing climate change adaptation pathways in the agricultural sector based on robust decision-making approach (case study: Sefidroud Irrigation Network, Iran).ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,196(4).
MLA	Mehraban, Mohsen,et al."Developing climate change adaptation pathways in the agricultural sector based on robust decision-making approach (case study: Sefidroud Irrigation Network, Iran)".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 196.4(2024).