气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.agsy.2024.103900
	Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions
	Lu, Yongquan; Liu, Guilin; Xian, Yuyang; Tang, Jiaqi; Zhong, Liming
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0308-521X
EISSN	1873-2267
起始页码	216
卷号	216
英文摘要	CONTEXT: Agricultural geographical indications (GIs) are crucial instruments for enhancing the competitiveness of rural products and fostering industrial revitalization. Climate change introduces notable alterations in the regions suitable for GIs, consequently influencing the industrial layout of the countryside. Understanding the impact of climate change on GIs is vital for effectively planning agricultural GI cultivation and facilitating rural revitalization. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to clarify how future climate change affects the suitable distribution of apple GIs in China and how these changes affect rural revitalization. METHODS: The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the transformation of suitable areas for apple GI in China from the present period to the 2090s based on apple GI occurrence data and climate prediction data. All regions were classified as unsuitable, low, or high suitability. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Among the considered climate variables, the minimum temperature of the coldest month was the most important factor shaping the distribution of suitable areas. The distribution of highsuitability areas for apple production underwent a transition from two main regions to four main production regions, namely, the Loess Plateau region including Qinghai province (LPR); the Northeast region (NER); the Southwest region (SWR); and the Xinjiang region (XJR), with an expansion of more than 25.11 Mha. The transition from the current apple GI high -suitability areas to western regions offers an opportunity for farmers in these regions to leverage local resources and thus acquire higher profits, ultimately contributing to the rural economic development of western regions. However, in the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the added suitable areas will encroach upon 16.87 Mha of conflict -prone areas in the SWR and 10.91 Mha in the NER. Moreover, a proportion of the newly suitable area may be situated on farmlands in the NER and XJR under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These regions need to effectively balance the relationships among ecological conservation, food security, and the development of high -quality apple cultivation. SIGNIFICANCE: We predict suitable habitats for apple GIs under climate change scenarios and discuss strategies to address climate change and promote the apple industry in different regions. This study offers valuable scientific insights into climate -smart apple cultivation, addresses the challenges of climate change in apple geographical indication development, and fosters rural revitalization.
英文关键词	Suitability analysis; MaxEnt modeling; Industrial structure transformation; Spatial analysis; Rural development
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
WOS类目	Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001186259500001
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307272
作者单位	South China Normal University; Sun Yat Sen University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu, Yongquan,Liu, Guilin,Xian, Yuyang,et al. Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions[J],2024,216.
APA	Lu, Yongquan,Liu, Guilin,Xian, Yuyang,Tang, Jiaqi,&Zhong, Liming.(2024).Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions.AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,216.
MLA	Lu, Yongquan,et al."Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions".AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 216(2024).