气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics

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DOI	10.1093/jme/tjae008
	Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics
	Laurito, Magdalena; Arias-Alzate, Andres
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0022-2585
EISSN	1938-2928
起始页码	61
结束页码	2
卷号	61 期号:2
英文摘要	Anthropogenic activities are altering ecosystem stability and climate worldwide, which is disturbing and shifting arbovirus vector distributions. Although the overall geographic range of some epidemiologically important species is recognized, the spatiotemporal variation for other species in the context of climate change remains poorly understood. Here we predict the current potential distribution of 9 species of Culex (Melanoconion) based on an ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach and assess spatiotemporal variation in future climate change in the Neotropics. The most important environmental predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest season (27 degree celsius), precipitation during the driest month (50 mm), and precipitation during the warmest season (>200 mm). The best current model for each species was transferred to the future general circulation model IPSL-CM6A-LR, using 2 shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (ssp1-2.6, ssp5-8.5). Under both scenarios of climatic change, an expansion of suitable areas can be observed followed by a strong reduction for the medium-long future under the worst scenario. The multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis indicated future novel climates outside the current range. However, none of the species would occur in those areas. Even if many challenges remain in improving methods for forecasting species responses to global climate change and arbovirus transmission, ENM has strong potential to be applied to the geographic characterization of these systems. Our study can be used for the monitoring of Culex (Melanoconion) species populations and their associated arboviruses, contributing to develop region-specific public health surveillance programs.
英文关键词	ecological niche modeling; climate change; MaxEnt; arbovirus; Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Entomology ; Veterinary Sciences
WOS类目	Entomology ; Veterinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001160933100001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307266
作者单位	Universidad Nacional de Chilecito (UNDEC); Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET); Universidad CES
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Laurito, Magdalena,Arias-Alzate, Andres. Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics[J],2024,61(2).
APA	Laurito, Magdalena,&Arias-Alzate, Andres.(2024).Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics.JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY,61(2).
MLA	Laurito, Magdalena,et al."Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics".JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 61.2(2024).