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| DOI | 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104823 |
| Climate change and the US wheat commodity market | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| ISSN | 0165-1889 |
| EISSN | 1879-1743 |
| 起始页码 | 161 |
| 卷号 | 161 |
| 英文摘要 | We study the impact on the workings of the wheat commodity market of increasing weather variability, one of the direct consequences of climate change. After finding strong evidence of an increase in the variance of weather and harvest for wheat in the US, we develop a structural time series model of the commodity market to investigate the sources and consequences of this increased variability. Exploiting this model, we devise a novel empirical procedure to analyze the impact on price and the potential adjustments of the speculative demand for inventories, as predicted by the rational storage theory. We find that speculation in the physical market for wheat at annual frequency adapted to the greater uncertainty about harvest stabilizing the market price. |
| 英文关键词 | Agricultural commodity market; Structural vector autoregression; Climate change; Structural change; Price volatility; Storage |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics |
| WOS类目 | Economics |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001202674600001 |
| 来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307217 |
| 作者单位 | University of Southampton; University of London; University College London; The World Bank |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Climate change and the US wheat commodity market[J],2024,161. |
| APA | (2024).Climate change and the US wheat commodity market.JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL,161. |
| MLA | "Climate change and the US wheat commodity market".JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL 161(2024). |
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