气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamic simulation and projection of ESV changes in arid regions caused by urban growth under climate change scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10661-024-12559-5
	Dynamic simulation and projection of ESV changes in arid regions caused by urban growth under climate change scenarios
	Tang, Xiaoyan; Feng, Yongjiu; Xi, Mengrong; Chen, Shurui; Wang, Rong; Lei, Zhenkun
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0167-6369
EISSN	1573-2959
起始页码	196
结束页码	5
卷号	196 期号:5
英文摘要	Spatial simulation and projection of ecosystem services value (ESV) changes caused by urban growth are important for sustainable development in arid regions. We developed a new model of cellular automata based grasshopper optimization algorithm (named GOA-CA) for simulating urban growth patterns and assessing the impacts of urban growth on ESV changes under climate change scenarios. The results show that GOA-CA yielded overall accuracy exceeding 98%, and FOM for 2010 and 2020 were 43.2% and 38.1%, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of the model. The prairie lost the highest economic ESVs (192 million USD) and the coniferous yielded the largest economic ESV increase (292 million USD) during 2000-2020. Using climate change scenarios as urban future land use demands, we projected three scenarios of the urban growth of Urumqi for 2050 and their impacts on ESV. Our model can be easily applied to simulating urban development, analyzing its impact on ESV and projecting future scenarios in global arid regions.
英文关键词	grasshopper optimization algorithm; arid regions; urban growth; climate change scenarios; ESV changes
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001197238700004
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/307126
作者单位	Tongji University; Tongji University; Tongji University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tang, Xiaoyan,Feng, Yongjiu,Xi, Mengrong,et al. Dynamic simulation and projection of ESV changes in arid regions caused by urban growth under climate change scenarios[J],2024,196(5).
APA	Tang, Xiaoyan,Feng, Yongjiu,Xi, Mengrong,Chen, Shurui,Wang, Rong,&Lei, Zhenkun.(2024).Dynamic simulation and projection of ESV changes in arid regions caused by urban growth under climate change scenarios.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,196(5).
MLA	Tang, Xiaoyan,et al."Dynamic simulation and projection of ESV changes in arid regions caused by urban growth under climate change scenarios".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 196.5(2024).