气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold-adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America

CCPortal

DOI	10.1111/gcb.17205
	Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold-adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America
	Shirey, Vaughn; Neupane, Naresh; Guralnick, Robert; Ries, Leslie
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1354-1013
EISSN	1365-2486
起始页码	30
结束页码	2
卷号	30 期号:2
英文摘要	Global climate change has been identified as a potential driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions, there are critical data gaps that make it difficult to assess how communities are responding to climate change. Poleward regions are of particular interest because warming is most rapid while biodiversity data are most sparse. Building on recent advances in occupancy modeling of presence-only data, we reconstructed 50 years (1970-2019) of butterfly occupancy trends in response to rising minimum temperatures in one of the most under-sampled regions of North America. Among 90 modeled species, we found that cold-adapted species are far more often in decline compared with their warm-adapted, more southernly distributed counterparts. Furthermore, in a post hoc analysis using species' traits, we find that species' range-wide average annual temperature is the only consistent predictor of occupancy changes. Species with warmer ranges were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. This trend results in the majority of butterflies increasing in occupancy probability over the last 50 years. Our results provide the first look at macroscale butterfly biodiversity shifts in high-latitude North America. These results highlight the potential of leveraging the wealth of presence-only data, the most abundant source of biodiversity data, for inferring changes in species distributions. In Arctic and boreal North America, rising minimum temperatures over the last 50 years due to climate change are benefiting southern, warm-adapted butterflies which are expanding northward as previously harsh conditions become favorable. However, their cold-adapted counterparts are in decline. This is important because these cold-adapted species are seldom the focus on conservation attention in North America and are facing the most rapid climate change on the continent.image
英文关键词	arctic; biodiversity; boreal; butterflies; climate change; insect decline; Lepidoptera
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001177413700016
来源期刊	GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306963
作者单位	Georgetown University; University of Southern California; State University System of Florida; University of Florida
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shirey, Vaughn,Neupane, Naresh,Guralnick, Robert,et al. Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold-adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America[J],2024,30(2).
APA	Shirey, Vaughn,Neupane, Naresh,Guralnick, Robert,&Ries, Leslie.(2024).Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold-adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,30(2).
MLA	Shirey, Vaughn,et al."Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold-adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 30.2(2024).