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DOI10.1186/s42408-024-00257-z
Spatial and temporal patterns and driving factors of forest fires based on an optimal parameter-based geographic detector in the Panxi region, Southwest China
发表日期2024
ISSN1933-9747
起始页码20
结束页码1
卷号20期号:1
英文摘要BackgroundThe Panxi region in China is among the areas that are most severely impacted by forest fires. Despite this, there is currently a lack of comprehensive and systematic research on the spatial and temporal distribution patterns, as well as the drivers, of forest fires in the region. To reveal bio-geo-climatic and anthropogenic influences, this study investigated the temporal and spatial characteristics of forest fires and migration patterns of the center of gravity of forest fires in Panxi. A parametric optimal geographical detection model was utilized to quantify the influence of various individual factors and their combinations on the spatial patterns of forest fire occurrence in the whole Panxi region and sub-region, by analyzing the forest fire dataset from 2004 to 2020.ResultsFrom 2004 to 2020, the Panxi region experienced an upward trend in the number of forest fires and the area burned. However, the trends were not consistent over the entire period. Between 2004 and 2014, both the number of fires and the area burned showed fluctuations and an overall increase. In contrast, between 2015 and 2020, there was a significant decrease in the number of fires, while the area burned showed a continued upward trend. The study identified abrupt changes in the frequency of forest fires and burned areas, primarily in 2007 and 2016. Spatially, forest fires in Panxi exhibited a positive correlation and local clustering. The river valley basin and hilly regions displayed a higher incidence of forest fires, which were concentrated mainly along the hill edges. In the whole area of Panxi, climatic factors have a predominant influence on forest fire occurrences. Specifically, evaporation, maximum temperature, average temperature, number of days without rain, and minimum temperature demonstrated the strongest explanatory power. Furthermore, this relationship was found to be reinforced when combined with topographical, human activities, and vegetation factors. The spatial variation of drought within each sub-district has a stronger explanatory power for the distribution characteristics of forest fires in the region than at the Panxi-wide scale. The factor with the maximum interaction in most regions was the dual factor of rainfall and drought.ConclusionsThe study's findings validate the applicability of geographic probes for identifying the drivers of fire occurrence and enhance our understanding of the drivers and their combined effects on the spatial context of the fire-incident study area. AntecedentesLa region de Panxi en China esta entre las areas mas severamente impactadas por los incendios forestales. A pesar de ello, hay al dia de hoy una falta de investigaciones comprensivas y sistematicas sobre los patrones espaciales y temporales en su distribucion, como asi tambien de los factores conducentes a los incendios forestales en esa region. De manera de revelar las influencias bio-geo-climaticas y antropogenicas, este estudio investigo las caracteristicas espaciales y temporales y los patrones de migracion del centro de gravedad de los incendios forestales en Panxi. Un modelo parametrico de deteccion geografica optima fue utilizado para cuantificar la influencia de varios factores individuales y sus combinaciones sobre los patrones espaciales de ocurrencia de incendios en la region de Panxi y en una subregion, mediante el analisis de una base de datos de incendios ocurridos entre 2004 y 2020.ResultadosDesde 2004 y hasta 2020, la region de Panxi experimento una tendencia alcista en el numero de incendios y en el area quemada. Desde luego, estas tendencias no fueron consistentes sobre el periodo total. Entre 2004 y 2014, tanto el numero de incendios como el area quemada mostraron fluctuaciones y un incremento en general. En contraste, entre 2015 y 2020, se noto un decremento significativo en el numero de incendios mientras que el area quemada mostro una tendencia al aumento. El estudio identifico cambios abruptos en la frecuencia de los incendios y areas quemadas, fundamentalmente en 2007 y 2016. Espacialmente, los incendios forestales en Panxi exhibieron una correlacion positiva y un agrupamiento local. La cuenca del valle que bordea el rio y las regiones con colinas mostraron las incidencias mas grandes de los incendios, que se concentraron mayoritariamente alrededor de los bordes de las colinas. En la totalidad del area de Panxi, los factores climaticos tienen una influencia predominante en la ocurrencia de los incendios. Especificamente, la evaporacion, la temperatura maxima, el numero de dias sin lluvia, y las temperaturas minimas demostraron ser las variables explicativas mas poderosas. Ademas, esta relacion se ve reforzada si se combinaba con factores topograficos, vegetacionales, e influencia humana. La variacion espacial de la sequia dentro de cada sub-distrito tuvo un poder explicativo mas fuerte sobre las caracteristicas de distribucion de los incendios que a mayor escala en la region de Panxi. La interaccion maxima en la mayoria de las regiones se debio al factor dual entre precipitaciones y sequias.ConclusionesLos resultados de este estudio validan la aplicabilidad de las pruebas geograficas para identificar los factores conducentes de los incendios forestales y aumenta nuestros conocimientos sobre estos factores conducentes y sus efectos combinados sobre el contexto espacial de los incidentes de incendios en el area de estudios.
英文关键词Panxi region; Forest fire; Spatiotemporal pattern; Driving factor; Parameter-optimal geophone
语种英语
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Forestry
WOS类目Ecology ; Forestry
WOS记录号WOS:001183783700001
来源期刊FIRE ECOLOGY
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306887
作者单位Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Mountain Hazards & Environment, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
. Spatial and temporal patterns and driving factors of forest fires based on an optimal parameter-based geographic detector in the Panxi region, Southwest China[J],2024,20(1).
APA (2024).Spatial and temporal patterns and driving factors of forest fires based on an optimal parameter-based geographic detector in the Panxi region, Southwest China.FIRE ECOLOGY,20(1).
MLA "Spatial and temporal patterns and driving factors of forest fires based on an optimal parameter-based geographic detector in the Panxi region, Southwest China".FIRE ECOLOGY 20.1(2024).
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