气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00376-023-3158-7
	Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina
	Tang, Bin; Hu, Wenting; Duan, Anmin; Liu, Yimin; Bao, Wen; Xin, Yue; Yang, Xianyi
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0256-1530
EISSN	1861-9533
起始页码	41
结束页码	6
卷号	41 期号:6
英文摘要	Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina (INCSC) in recent decades. Given the areas with large gross domestic product (GDP) in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming, understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day) and the maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) is critical for adaptation planning in this region. Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5-8.5) are investigated. Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region, while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming. The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region, rather than the change of GDP. If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP, the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan in South China, as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina. Thus, timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions. Moreover, from the sub-regional average viewpoint, over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region. (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(INCSC)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic). (sic)(sic)INCSC(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)5(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(RX5day)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(CDD)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic). (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)6(sic)(sic)(CMIP6)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(SSP5-8.5)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)INCSC(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic). (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)RX5day(sic)(sic)INCSC(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), INCSC(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)CDD(sic)(sic)(sic). (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)INCSC(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic). (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic), (sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic). (sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic). (sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)CMIP6(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)INCSC(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).
英文关键词	CMIP6; heavy precipitation; extreme drought; South China; Indochina; economic impact; (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic); (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic); (sic)(sic); (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic); (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001227238400014
来源期刊	ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306866
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Xiamen University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tang, Bin,Hu, Wenting,Duan, Anmin,et al. Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina[J],2024,41(6).
APA	Tang, Bin.,Hu, Wenting.,Duan, Anmin.,Liu, Yimin.,Bao, Wen.,...&Yang, Xianyi.(2024).Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina.ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,41(6).
MLA	Tang, Bin,et al."Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina".ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 41.6(2024).