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| DOI | 10.1029/2023EF003856 |
| Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on Future Unprecedented Droughts in California: Insights From Multiple Indices and Multi-Model Projections | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 2328-4277 |
| 起始页码 | 12 |
| 结束页码 | 1 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | So-called hot droughts are seen as one of the very foreseeable extremes amid the faster-than-expected pace of global warming. In particular, the western part of North America has been pummeled by severe droughts due to a lack of precipitation as well as record-breaking hot temperatures. This study assesses the joint return period of drought severity and duration using the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment-COmmon Regional Experiment (CORDEX-CORE) simulations over the California domain. Six dynamically downscaled simulations with 25 km resolution are analyzed for the historical (1956-2005) and future (2050-2099) periods, whose warming sensitivities differ based on three global climate models (GCMs) driving two regional climate models (RCMs). Our focus is on estimating the joint probabilities of the drought duration and severity constructed from multiple drought indices such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (with original temperature (PDSI) and its detrended counterpart (PDSI_detrended)) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, an unprecedented level of droughts in terms of both duration and severity is likely to emerge only when the drought is characterized by PDSI. A comparison of PDSI and PDSI_detrended explicitly reveals that the occurrence of severe and prolonged droughts is mainly attributed to the warming trend of temperature. Both PDSI_detrended and SPI, which do not incorporate the warming effect explicitly, barely differentiate the joint distributions from the historical and future simulations. Unlike the PDSI based on water budget, the SPI, based on solely accumulated precipitation, shows a loosely coupled joint structure between the severity and duration of droughts, with marked differences in their marginal distributions. Recent mega-droughts in California have enhanced public awareness of hot droughts driven by not only a lack of precipitation but also increased evapotranspiration. While a warmer temperature is expected to exacerbate soil dryness, few studies have attempted to explicitly separate temperature effects on future drought projections. In this regard, a comparative assessment of drought characteristics based on multiple drought indices and climate projections is conducted with a focus on temperature's role in determining drought severity and duration. The unprecedentedly extreme droughts, which have never occurred in both observation and historical simulations, are projected to emerge under the high-emission scenario only when measured by the drought index with the input of both precipitation and temperature. However, when the same index is calculated with the temperature after removing the warming trend, the severity and duration of projected droughts remain mostly unchanged. In addition, the drought index, based on solely accumulated precipitation, does not differentiate the drought characteristics between historical and future simulations. These results demonstrate the significant role of temperature in shaping drought characteristics. If the upward trend of temperature continues, the intensification of severe droughts is very likely to occur even without the changes in precipitation. Joint return periods of severity and duration of droughts are compared based on multiple drought indices and climate projectionsDrought index inputting warming trend exclusively captures the emergence of unprecedentedly severe and prolonged droughtsClimate models with higher warming sensitivity unveil the temperature's effect more explicitly in future projections of droughts |
| 英文关键词 | temperature impact on drought; joint return period; drought severity and duration; multiple drought indices; CORDEX-CORE simulations |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001143522700001 |
| 来源期刊 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306769 |
| 作者单位 | Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Korea Institute of Civil Engineering & Building Technology (KICT); Sejong University |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on Future Unprecedented Droughts in California: Insights From Multiple Indices and Multi-Model Projections[J],2024,12(1). |
| APA | (2024).Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on Future Unprecedented Droughts in California: Insights From Multiple Indices and Multi-Model Projections.EARTHS FUTURE,12(1). |
| MLA | "Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on Future Unprecedented Droughts in California: Insights From Multiple Indices and Multi-Model Projections".EARTHS FUTURE 12.1(2024). |
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