气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Monsoon's Influence on Central Asia's Subsequent Periods of Drought and Flooding

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DOI	10.1029/2023JD040291
	The Monsoon's Influence on Central Asia's Subsequent Periods of Drought and Flooding
	Nzabarinda, Vincent; Bao, Anming; Tie, Liu; Ochege, Friday Uchenna; Uwamahoro, Solange; Kayiranga, Alphonse; Bao, Jiayu; Sindikubwabo, Celestin; Li, Tao
发表日期	2024
ISSN	2169-897X
EISSN	2169-8996
起始页码	129
结束页码	10
卷号	129 期号:10
英文摘要	Central Asia and its southern neighbors are being ravaged by more frequent and intense droughts and floods. While research on droughts is abundant, their interaction with floods and monsoons, especially when originating in the south, has been understudied. This study employed temperature, precipitation, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and agricultural drought indices such as water deficit index (WDI), cumulative water deficit (CWD), and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) to investigate the role of monsoons in increasing drought and flooding in the southern part of central Asia, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, over a 31-year period. Findings revealed increasing severity and intensity of droughts over time, along with their duration and peaks, contrasting with irregular fluctuations in flood intensity. Rising regional temperatures coincide with declining precipitation. During summer monsoon (SM), average precipitation ranged from 0.03 mm/day (2004) to 0.05 mm/day (2010), with variations across the region. The temperature varied between -14.35 degrees C (2009) and 37.05 degrees C (1991), with a sharp increase up to 0.114 degrees C in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, as well as in northern Pakistan, Afghanistan, and western Tajikistan. A temperature drop during SM was revealed on the Mountains range of Himalaya, Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Parmir, Kunlun Shan and Tian Shan, and in Pakistan, down to -0.054 degrees C. WDI showed a strong positive connection (0.71 and 0.64) with temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and a weak negative correlation (-0.5) with precipitation during normal time. However, during the monsoon season, it demonstrated a negative correlation with both within a no significant (-0.08) range for maximum temperature. This study examines the influence of the monsoon on Central Asia's subsequent periods of drought and flooding. Central Asia, a region is located at a considerable distance from the main monsoon track. However, the monsoon's impact on the region is mediated through teleconnections and atmospheric circulation. The Indian summer monsoon brings significant rainfall to the Indian subcontinent and neighboring areas. During strong monsoon seasons, this excess moisture can propagate westward, resulting in increased rainfall in parts of Central Asia, particularly in the southern and southeastern regions. Conversely, a weak or failed monsoon can lead to reduced precipitation in Central Asia, contributing to drought conditions that affect agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. Additionally, variations in the monsoon influence the melting of mountain snowpack and glaciers, impacting water availability in rivers crucial for irrigation and drinking water. Understanding the monsoon's influence on Central Asia's climate patterns and subsequent drought and flooding events provides insights into the complex interactions between the monsoon system and Central Asia's hydrological cycle. Additionally, the findings imply that crop productivity will continue to be impacted in the future because temperature was found to be rising and precipitation was found to be fluctuating in a decreasing manner. The combined impact of monsoons, droughts, and floods in Central Asia
英文关键词	monsoon impact; drought and flood dynamics; agriculture monitoring; temperature variations; precipitation trends; Central Asia climate
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001227421600001
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306602
作者单位	Chinese Academy of Sciences; Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Port Harcourt; Kunming University of Science & Technology; Northwest Normal University - China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nzabarinda, Vincent,Bao, Anming,Tie, Liu,et al. The Monsoon's Influence on Central Asia's Subsequent Periods of Drought and Flooding[J],2024,129(10).
APA	Nzabarinda, Vincent.,Bao, Anming.,Tie, Liu.,Ochege, Friday Uchenna.,Uwamahoro, Solange.,...&Li, Tao.(2024).The Monsoon's Influence on Central Asia's Subsequent Periods of Drought and Flooding.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,129(10).
MLA	Nzabarinda, Vincent,et al."The Monsoon's Influence on Central Asia's Subsequent Periods of Drought and Flooding".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 129.10(2024).