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| DOI | 10.1186/s12889-024-17847-w |
| Towards an intelligent malaria outbreak warning model based intelligent malaria outbreak warning in the northern part of Benin, West Africa | |
| 发表日期 | 2024 |
| EISSN | 1471-2458 |
| 起始页码 | 24 |
| 结束页码 | 1 |
| 卷号 | 24期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | BackgroundMalaria is one of the major vector-borne diseases most sensitive to climatic change in West Africa. The prevention and reduction of malaria are very difficult in Benin due to poverty, economic insatiability and the non control of environmental determinants. This study aims to develop an intelligent outbreak malaria early warning model driven by monthly time series climatic variables in the northern part of Benin.MethodsClimate data from nine rain gauge stations and malaria incidence data from 2009 to 2021 were extracted from the National Meteorological Agency (METEO) and the Ministry of Health of Benin, respectively. Projected relative humidity and temperature were obtained from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) simulations of the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric regional climate model (RCA4).A structural equation model was employed to determine the effects of climatic variables on malaria incidence. We developed an intelligent malaria early warning model to predict the prevalence of malaria using machine learning by applying three machine learning algorithms, including linear regression (LiR), support vector machine (SVM), and negative binomial regression (NBiR).MethodsClimate data from nine rain gauge stations and malaria incidence data from 2009 to 2021 were extracted from the National Meteorological Agency (METEO) and the Ministry of Health of Benin, respectively. Projected relative humidity and temperature were obtained from the coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) simulations of the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric regional climate model (RCA4).A structural equation model was employed to determine the effects of climatic variables on malaria incidence. We developed an intelligent malaria early warning model to predict the prevalence of malaria using machine learning by applying three machine learning algorithms, including linear regression (LiR), support vector machine (SVM), and negative binomial regression (NBiR).ResultsTwo ecological factors such as factor 1 (related to average mean relative humidity, average maximum relative humidity, and average maximal temperature) and factor 2 (related to average minimal temperature) affect the incidence of malaria. Support vector machine regression is the best-performing algorithm, predicting 82% of malaria incidence in the northern part of Benin.The projection reveals an increase in malaria incidence under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the studied period.ResultsTwo ecological factors such as factor 1 (related to average mean relative humidity, average maximum relative humidity, and average maximal temperature) and factor 2 (related to average minimal temperature) affect the incidence of malaria. Support vector machine regression is the best-performing algorithm, predicting 82% of malaria incidence in the northern part of Benin.The projection reveals an increase in malaria incidence under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over the studied period.ConclusionThese results reveal that the northern part of Benin is at high risk of malaria, and specific malaria control programs are urged to reduce the risk of malaria. |
| 英文关键词 | Climate change; Malaria; Prediction; Northern Benin |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS研究方向 | Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| WOS类目 | Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001160556900001 |
| 来源期刊 | BMC PUBLIC HEALTH
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306532 |
| 作者单位 | University of Lome; University of Lome; University of Abomey Calavi; Hochschule Angewandte Wissenschaft Hamburg |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | . Towards an intelligent malaria outbreak warning model based intelligent malaria outbreak warning in the northern part of Benin, West Africa[J],2024,24(1). |
| APA | (2024).Towards an intelligent malaria outbreak warning model based intelligent malaria outbreak warning in the northern part of Benin, West Africa.BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,24(1). |
| MLA | "Towards an intelligent malaria outbreak warning model based intelligent malaria outbreak warning in the northern part of Benin, West Africa".BMC PUBLIC HEALTH 24.1(2024). |
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