气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection-Permitting Model Ensemble

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DOI	10.1029/2023GL105143
	Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection-Permitting Model Ensemble
	Caillaud, Cecile; Somot, Samuel; Douville, Herve; Alias, Antoinette; Bastin, Sophie; Brienen, Susanne; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Dobler, Andreas; Feldmann, Hendrik; Frisius, Thomas; Goergen, Klaus; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Keuler, Klaus; Lenderink, Geert; Mercogliano, Paola; Pichelli, Emanuela; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Toelle, Merja H.; de Vries, Hylke
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
起始页码	51
结束页码	6
卷号	51 期号:6
英文摘要	Taking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting-Regional Climate Models on a pan-Alpine domain and of an object-oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in high-impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify a robust multi-model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial extension of the affected areas, for a dominant influence of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the frequency, and for an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of convection-permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes in events' properties, including for the most intense events. Model diversity and international coordination are still needed to provide policy-relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes. Despite growing computational resources and multiple model developments, projecting future changes in the high-impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events remains both a numerical and scientific challenge. The present study takes advantage of the recent availability of a relatively large ensemble of high resolution Regional Climate Models (2-3 km), which represent a step change in the simulation of precipitation extremes, and of an object-oriented approach, allowing us to track the convective precipitating systems on an hourly basis. Looking at future changes in fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels, we identify a robust multi-model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial expansion of the affected areas, and an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, considerable uncertainties remain in terms of frequency over parts of the domain arising from uncertainty in changes in large scale weather patterns, and in terms of degree of intensification for the most intense events. It suggests the need for model diversity and for more coordinated high resolution climate projections with careful selection of different driving global models in order to provide policy-relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes. High-resolution ensemble and object-oriented approach offer a unique opportunity to study changes in Mediterranean extreme precipitation Robust agreement is found for an increase in intensity, volume and severity for future French Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events Even at convection-permitting scale, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the degree of intensification of the most extreme events
英文关键词	convection-permitting regional climate model; heavy precipitation events; mediterranean; climate change; object-oriented; tracking
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001188128700001
来源期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306295
作者单位	Meteo France; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Toulouse; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite Paris Saclay; Sorbonne Universite; Deutscher Wetterdienst; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Bern; University of Bern; University of Bern; Norwegian Meteorological Institute; Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon; Helmholtz Association; Research Center Julich; Met Office - UK; Hadley Centre; Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP); Universidade de Lisboa; Universitat Kassel
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Caillaud, Cecile,Somot, Samuel,Douville, Herve,et al. Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection-Permitting Model Ensemble[J],2024,51(6).
APA	Caillaud, Cecile.,Somot, Samuel.,Douville, Herve.,Alias, Antoinette.,Bastin, Sophie.,...&de Vries, Hylke.(2024).Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection-Permitting Model Ensemble.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,51(6).
MLA	Caillaud, Cecile,et al."Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection-Permitting Model Ensemble".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 51.6(2024).