气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Combining species distribution models and big datasets may provide finer assessments of snakebite impacts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1371/journal.pntd.0012161
	Combining species distribution models and big datasets may provide finer assessments of snakebite impacts
	Chowdhury, Mohammad Abdul Wahed; Mueller, Johannes; Ghose, Aniruddha; Amin, Robed; Sayeed, Abdullah Abu; Kuch, Ulrich; Faiz, Mohammad Abul
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1935-2735
起始页码	18
结束页码	5
卷号	18 期号:5
英文摘要	Background Snakebite is a major poverty-related neglected tropical disease. An integrated scientific approach is needed to understand the dynamics of this important health issue. Our objective was to estimate snakebite occurrence in a tropical area by using a blend of ecological modelling and robust statistical analysis. Methods The present study used climatic, environmental, and human population density data to determine the area with snakebite occurrence-probability for the first time in Bangladesh. We also analysed a large, 16-year dataset of hospitalized snakebite cases to reveal the epidemiology of snakebite in the south-eastern zone of the country. Findings Our results show that cobra bite is the most commonly occurring venomous snakebite in humans (around similar to 12% of the total yearly snakebite records), and men are more frequently bitten than women (2/3 of human victims are men). Most bites occur during the rainy season for cobra and green pit viper, while krait bites are not restricted to any particular season. As snakebite incidents are closely related to climate conditions, we can model snakebite risk using temperature and precipitation variables. Whereas there is a lack of snakebite reports from several parts of the study area in official records, our models predict that the entire study area is favourable for snakebite incidents. Based on the combined evidence we estimate that about 200,000 snakebite events occur every year in the south-eastern part of Bangladesh alone. Considering future global climate change, our model projections show that snakebite incidence in Bangladesh might not significantly decrease in the future (- 2070-); however, the distribution of probabilities might change, with a predicted increase of snakebite incidence in the hilly areas of the country. Conclusions Using climatic data to predict snakebite incidence in Bangladesh allowed us to provide estimations of the total annual number of snakebite cases in the study area. As in most countries, the scarcity of accurate epidemiological data in official records might have masked the real magnitude of this problem. Our analysis suggests that the problem of snakebite envenoming in Bangladesh might be worse than currently perceived. A long-term sustainable snakebite program plan should be designed and institutionalized, considering climatic, geographical and human demographic variables, to obtain better data and facilitate the implementation of accurate snakebite management programs for this country.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Infectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
WOS类目	Infectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
WOS记录号	WOS:001227952800004
来源期刊	PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/306102
作者单位	University of Chittagong; Leibniz Institut fur Evolutions und Biodiversitatsforschung; Humboldt University of Berlin; Chittagong Medical College; Chittagong Medical College; Goethe University Frankfurt
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chowdhury, Mohammad Abdul Wahed,Mueller, Johannes,Ghose, Aniruddha,et al. Combining species distribution models and big datasets may provide finer assessments of snakebite impacts[J],2024,18(5).
APA	Chowdhury, Mohammad Abdul Wahed.,Mueller, Johannes.,Ghose, Aniruddha.,Amin, Robed.,Sayeed, Abdullah Abu.,...&Faiz, Mohammad Abul.(2024).Combining species distribution models and big datasets may provide finer assessments of snakebite impacts.PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES,18(5).
MLA	Chowdhury, Mohammad Abdul Wahed,et al."Combining species distribution models and big datasets may provide finer assessments of snakebite impacts".PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES 18.5(2024).