气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Trade-offs in the use of direct and indirect indicators of ecosystem degradation for risk assessment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111790
	Trade-offs in the use of direct and indirect indicators of ecosystem degradation for risk assessment
	Ferrer-Paris, Jose R.; Keith, David A.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
起始页码	160
卷号	160
英文摘要	Ecosystem risk assessments estimate the likelihood of major transformations (ecosystem collapse) over a specified time frame. They require an understanding of the biotic and abiotic processes that drive declines. Relative Severity and Extent of Decline quantify essential dimensions of ecosystem degradation as part of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems risk assessment protocol. These flexible and powerful concepts are operationalised through ecosystem-specific indicators of functional decline. Here, we examine trade-offs in risk assessment between direct, yet data-demanding indicators and indirect indicators that are more widely applicable with global data sets. Using a case study of multiple tropical glacier ecosystems, we compared estimates of risk based on a direct indicator of functional decline (ice mass) with those based on an indirect indicator (bioclimatic suitability). The direct estimate of Relative Severity was based on the projected changes in ice mass using a glacier ice mass balance and dynamics model, while the indirect estimate was calculated from the expected changes in suitability based on a correlative habitat suitability model parameterised with current occurrence records. For reference, we calculated probability of ecosystem collapse from simulations of the ice mass balance and dynamics model. We found that the indirect indicator systematically underestimated risks of ecosystem collapse compared to the direct indicator and returned a different rank order of risks across glaciers due to prominent discrepancies in some units. Small and isolated glaciers located outside the tropical Andes are uniformly exposed to high levels of degradation and have high probabilities of collapse before 2080, whereas tropical Andean glaciers exhibit different rates of degradation, but are expected to undergo very severe degradation before 2100. For these larger units a detailed analysis of spatial differences in future projections could inform regional and local strategies for future monitoring, management and conservation action that can benefit people and nature. Evaluating Relative Severity and Extent of Decline over time and with different ecosystem-specific indicators allowed us to describe trends across a group of functionally similar ecosystem types and compare their performance in assessment units of different size and risk of collapse. The methods could be applied to other ice or snow-dependent ecosystems, while the case study should be instructive for development of risk indicators in many other ecosystem types.
英文关键词	Ecosystem collapse; Red List of Ecosystems; Relative severity; Extent of decline; Cryosphere; Tropical glaciers
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001202492600001
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305981
作者单位	University of New South Wales Sydney; University of New South Wales Sydney
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ferrer-Paris, Jose R.,Keith, David A.. Trade-offs in the use of direct and indirect indicators of ecosystem degradation for risk assessment[J],2024,160.
APA	Ferrer-Paris, Jose R.,&Keith, David A..(2024).Trade-offs in the use of direct and indirect indicators of ecosystem degradation for risk assessment.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,160.
MLA	Ferrer-Paris, Jose R.,et al."Trade-offs in the use of direct and indirect indicators of ecosystem degradation for risk assessment".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 160(2024).