气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Response of Surface Temperature Persistence to Arctic Sea-Ice Loss

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DOI	10.1029/2023GL106863
	The Response of Surface Temperature Persistence to Arctic Sea-Ice Loss
	Lewis, Neil T.; Seviour, William J. M.; Roberts-Straw, Hannah E.; Screen, James A.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
起始页码	51
结束页码	2
卷号	51 期号:2
英文摘要	We investigate the response of surface temperature persistence, quantified using a lagged autocorrelation, to imposed Arctic sea-ice loss in coupled model experiments. Sea-ice loss causes increases in persistence over ocean in midlatitudes and the low-Arctic, which are of a similar magnitude to the total response to climate change in these regions. Using an idealized model, we show that sea-ice loss induces a slowing of meridional wind anomalies, which can drive the midlatitude persistence increase obtained in coupled models. Sea-ice loss should induce persistence increases in the Arctic, through its effect on the surface heat capacity. However, in coupled models with imposed sea-ice loss, persistence increase in the Arctic is essentially absent. We suggest that methods used to constrain sea-ice in coupled models may spuriously reduce the effects of sea-ice loss on persistence. It has been suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss is driving an increase in extreme weather events in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. We discuss two routes through which Arctic sea-ice loss can increase the persistence of weather in the Arctic and midlatitudes. First, sea-ice loss increases the thermal inertia of the surface by exposing open ocean, which has a higher heat capacity, potentially leading to persistence increases in the Arctic. Second, sea-ice loss drives changes in atmospheric circulation, which may affect surface temperature variability. We analyze climate model experiments where sea-ice loss is artificially induced, in the absence of other climate forcings, to investigate whether either of these routes leads to an appreciable change in the persistence of surface weather. We find sea-ice loss causes modest increases in persistence in midlatitudes, with the most significant changes occurring over ocean regions. Unexpectedly, we do not identify an increase in Arctic persistence in these experiments, even though this response is easily identifiable in experiments driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Using a simplified climate model, we show that underestimating the persistence response may be an unintended side-effect of the methods used to isolate the effect of sea-ice loss in climate models. Arctic sea-ice loss drives local increases in persistence by reducing the effective heat capacity of the surfacePersistence in midlatitudes increases due to changes in the forcing of surface temperature variability by atmospheric circulationThe effect of sea-ice loss on persistence may be underestimated in comprehensive models with constrained sea-ice
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001149693900001
来源期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305918
作者单位	University of Exeter; University of Exeter; University of Exeter
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lewis, Neil T.,Seviour, William J. M.,Roberts-Straw, Hannah E.,et al. The Response of Surface Temperature Persistence to Arctic Sea-Ice Loss[J],2024,51(2).
APA	Lewis, Neil T.,Seviour, William J. M.,Roberts-Straw, Hannah E.,&Screen, James A..(2024).The Response of Surface Temperature Persistence to Arctic Sea-Ice Loss.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,51(2).
MLA	Lewis, Neil T.,et al."The Response of Surface Temperature Persistence to Arctic Sea-Ice Loss".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 51.2(2024).