气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics

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DOI	10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.003
	Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2468-0427
起始页码	9
结束页码	1
卷号	9 期号:1
英文摘要	Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms, poses a major public health challenge in economically disadvantaged regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate factors, such as temperature and rainfall patterns, play a crucial role in the transmission dynamics of the disease. This study presents a deterministic model that aims to evaluate the temporal and seasonal transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis by examining the influence of temperature and rainfall over time. Equilibrium states are examined to ascertain their existence and stability employing the center manifold theory, while the basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation technique. To validate the model's applicability, demographic and climatological data from Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, which are endemic East African countries situated in the tropical region, are utilized as a case study region. The findings of this study provide evidence that the transmission of schistosomiasis in human populations is significantly influenced by seasonal and monthly variations, with incidence rates varying across countries depending on the frequency of temperature and rainfall. Consequently, the region is marked by both schistosomiasis emergencies and re-emergences. Specifically, it is observed that monthly mean temperatures within the range of 22-27 degrees C create favorable conditions for the development of schistosomiasis and have a positive impact on the reproduction numbers. On the other hand, monthly maximum temperatures ranging from 27 to 33 degrees C have an adverse effect on transmission. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, it is projected that by the year 2050, factors such as the recruitment rate of snails, the presence of parasite egg-containing stools, and the rate of miracidia shedding per parasite egg will contribute significantly to the occurrence and control of schistosomiasis infections. This study highlights the significant influence of seasonal and monthly variations, driven by temperature and rainfall patterns, on the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. These findings underscore the importance of considering climate factors in the control and prevention strategies of schistosomiasis. Additionally, the projected impact of various factors on schistosomiasis infections by 2050 emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate the disease's impact on vulnerable populations. Overall, this research provides valuable insights to anticipate future challenges and devise adaptive measures to address schistosomiasis transmission patterns. (c) 2023 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
英文关键词	Modeling; Schistosomiasis transmission; Temperature; Rainfall; Basic reproduction number; East Africa
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Mathematical & Computational Biology ; Infectious Diseases
WOS类目	Mathematical & Computational Biology ; Infectious Diseases
WOS记录号	WOS:001150297300001
来源期刊	INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELLING
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305771
作者单位	Justus Liebig University Giessen; Justus Liebig University Giessen; Justus Liebig University Giessen
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	. Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics[J],2024,9(1).
APA	(2024).Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics.INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELLING,9(1).
MLA	"Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics".INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELLING 9.1(2024).

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