气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

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DOI	10.5194/acp-24-533-2024
	Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects
	Mahowald, Natalie M.; Li, Longlei; Albani, Samuel; Hamilton, Douglas S.; Kok, Jasper F.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	1680-7316
EISSN	1680-7324
起始页码	24
结束页码	1
卷号	24 期号:1
英文摘要	Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m - 2 ) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m - 2 ) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m - 2 , and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m - 2 K - 1 . In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001168881500001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305716
作者单位	Cornell University; University of Milano-Bicocca; North Carolina State University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mahowald, Natalie M.,Li, Longlei,Albani, Samuel,et al. Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects[J],2024,24(1).
APA	Mahowald, Natalie M.,Li, Longlei,Albani, Samuel,Hamilton, Douglas S.,&Kok, Jasper F..(2024).Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,24(1).
MLA	Mahowald, Natalie M.,et al."Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 24.1(2024).