气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Construction of China's food security evaluation index system and spatiotemporal evolution

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11356-024-32633-2
	Construction of China's food security evaluation index system and spatiotemporal evolution
	Lee, Chien-Chiang; Li, Jiangnan; Zeng, Mingli
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0944-1344
EISSN	1614-7499
英文摘要	Food security is a vital material foundation for a nation's development and has been a topic of significant concern on the international stage in recent years. With a population exceeding 1.4 billion, China is not only a major producer but also a substantial consumer of food. Ensuring food security in China is not only a top priority for its socio-economic development but also a driving force in maintaining the stability of the global food supply chain and reducing the number of hungry people worldwide. However, a lack of comprehensive research into the Chinese food security system remains. This study addresses this gap by constructing a comprehensive evaluation framework encompassing four dimensions: food supply, accessibility, production stability, and sustainability. Utilizing the Moran's Index and generating LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association) maps, we analyze the spatial correlations of food security. The Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation are applied to assess heterogeneity and spatial disparities. Furthermore, this research employs the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model to forecast food security trends. The findings reveal that the overall composite food security score exhibited fluctuations, initially increasing and reaching its peak of 0.407 in 2003, followed by a subsequent sharp decline after 2019. Spatially, food security exhibits correlations, with the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Northeast regions consistently showing high-high clustering. In contrast, the Western and Southern regions exhibit low-low clustering at specific periods. The Dagum Gini coefficient indicates that overall food security disparities are relatively small. However, these disparities have gradually expanded in recent years, with inter-group differences becoming predominant after 2005. As indicated by the kernel density estimation, the dynamic distribution of food security initially widens and then narrows, suggesting a shift from dispersed to concentrated data distribution. This phenomenon is accompanied by polarization and convergence trends, particularly evident after 2015. According to the ETS model, the study forecasts a substantial risk of declining food security in China over the next decade, largely influenced by the ongoing pandemic. In conclusion, this research provides a comprehensive assessment of the changing status of food security in China. It offers early warnings through predictive analysis, addressing the existing research gaps in the field of food security.
英文关键词	Food security; Indicator system; Spatial analysis; Regional heterogeneity; Agricultural policies
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001178712000008
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305706
作者单位	Nanchang University; Nanchang University; Lebanese American University; Nanchang University
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lee, Chien-Chiang,Li, Jiangnan,Zeng, Mingli. Construction of China's food security evaluation index system and spatiotemporal evolution[J],2024.
APA	Lee, Chien-Chiang,Li, Jiangnan,&Zeng, Mingli.(2024).Construction of China's food security evaluation index system and spatiotemporal evolution.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH.
MLA	Lee, Chien-Chiang,et al."Construction of China's food security evaluation index system and spatiotemporal evolution".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH (2024).