气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Synoptic Analysis and Subseasonal Predictability of an Early Heatwave in the Eastern Mediterranean

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DOI	10.3390/atmos15040442
	Synoptic Analysis and Subseasonal Predictability of an Early Heatwave in the Eastern Mediterranean
	Mitropoulos, Dimitris; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Zanis, Prodromos; Anagnostopoulou, Christina
发表日期	2024
EISSN	2073-4433
起始页码	15
结束页码	4
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	Greece and the surrounding areas experienced an early warm spell with characteristics of a typical summer Mediterranean heatwave in mid-May 2020. The maximum 2 m temperature at Kalamata (southern Greece) reached 40 degrees C on 16 May and at Aydin (Turkey), it was 42.6 degrees C on 17 May. There was a 10-standard deviation positive temperature anomaly (relative to the 1975-2005 climatology) at 850 hPa, with a southwesterly flow and warm advection over Greece and western Turkey from 11 to 20 May. At 500 hPa, a ridge was located over the Eastern Mediterranean, resulting in subsidence. The aims of this study were (a) to investigate the prevailing synoptic conditions during this event in order to document its occurrence and (b) to assess whether this out-of-season heatwave was predictable on subseasonal timescales. The subseasonal predictability is not a well-researched scientific topic in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The ensemble global forecasts from six international meteorological centres (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-ECMWF, United Kingdom Met Office-UKMO, China Meteorological Administration-CMA, Korea Meteorological Administration-KMA, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-NCEP and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia-HMCR) and limited area forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF) forced by Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv.2; NCEP) forecasts were evaluated for lead times ranging from two to six weeks using statistical scores. WRF was integrated using two telescoping nests covering Europe, the Mediterranean basin and large part of the Atlantic Ocean, with a grid spacing of 25 km, and Greece-western Turkey at 5 km. The results showed that there were some accurate forecasts initiated two weeks before the event's onset. There was no systematic benefit from the increase of the WRF model's resolution from 25 km to 5 km for forecasting the 850 hPa temperature, but regarding the prediction of maximum air temperature near the surface, the high resolution (5 km) nest of WRF produced a marginally better performance than the coarser resolution domain (25 km).
英文关键词	predictability; ROC; subseasonal; S2S; heatwave; synoptic analysis; Eastern Mediterranean; WRF
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001210309800001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERE
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305445
作者单位	Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mitropoulos, Dimitris,Pytharoulis, Ioannis,Zanis, Prodromos,et al. Synoptic Analysis and Subseasonal Predictability of an Early Heatwave in the Eastern Mediterranean[J],2024,15(4).
APA	Mitropoulos, Dimitris,Pytharoulis, Ioannis,Zanis, Prodromos,&Anagnostopoulou, Christina.(2024).Synoptic Analysis and Subseasonal Predictability of an Early Heatwave in the Eastern Mediterranean.ATMOSPHERE,15(4).
MLA	Mitropoulos, Dimitris,et al."Synoptic Analysis and Subseasonal Predictability of an Early Heatwave in the Eastern Mediterranean".ATMOSPHERE 15.4(2024).