气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes in the influence of the NAO on Mediterranean winter precipitation extremes in the EC-Earth3 large Ensemble: The prominent role of internal variability

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107391
	Future changes in the influence of the NAO on Mediterranean winter precipitation extremes in the EC-Earth3 large Ensemble: The prominent role of internal variability
	Rivosecchi, Andrea; Bollasina, M. A.; Colfescu, I.
发表日期	2024
ISSN	0169-8095
EISSN	1873-2895
起始页码	304
卷号	304
英文摘要	One of the largest uncertainties in future climate projections is the interplay between internally generated and externally forced changes. This study investigates the changes in the link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Mediterranean winter extreme rainfall and dry days by the end of the 21st century compared to present day. We compare two different future pathways and estimate the extent to which the NAO imprint is affected by the global warming level using the latest EC-Earth3 large ensemble historical and future experiments. It is shown that the expected range of winter extremes changes due to internal and unpredictable fluctuations of the NAO largely overcomes the signal associated with externally-forced NAO variations. The NAO is found to exert a similar control on European climate variability, regardless of the amount of warming. For most of the Mediterranean region, magnitude and even sign of projected changes in the NAO-congruent precipitation indices vary substantially across the individual ensemble members according to the corresponding evolution of the NAO. Internal variability provides an average basin-wide contribution of up to 90% or more to the total NAO-driven variability in SSP1 - 1.9, and of about 80% in SSP5 - 8.5. Sub-regionally, the anthropogenic component of the NAO link is more evident over the Iberian Peninsula and parts of the central Mediterranean. This emphasises the role of internal variability and related uncertainty in determining the future impact of the NAO via the large spread in the circulation responses. However, the NAO is found to exert a weaker influence on the extreme precipitation total variability in both future scenarios given their future marked increase in total intensity and variance as opposed to the negligible NAO-related trends. Opposite conclusions are drawn for dry days, which are projected to decrease in the future, especially in the northern Mediterranean. Thus, this study also highlights how the variability of future extreme precipitation intensity in the Mediterranean basin will be less dependent on the principal mode of internal climate variability, posing further challenges for prediction and adaptation to weather-related hazards.
英文关键词	North Atlantic oscillation; Precipitation extremes; Projections; Internal variability
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001225381800001
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/305342
作者单位	University of Edinburgh; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); University of Leeds; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC National Centre for Atmospheric Science
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rivosecchi, Andrea,Bollasina, M. A.,Colfescu, I.. Future changes in the influence of the NAO on Mediterranean winter precipitation extremes in the EC-Earth3 large Ensemble: The prominent role of internal variability[J],2024,304.
APA	Rivosecchi, Andrea,Bollasina, M. A.,&Colfescu, I..(2024).Future changes in the influence of the NAO on Mediterranean winter precipitation extremes in the EC-Earth3 large Ensemble: The prominent role of internal variability.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,304.
MLA	Rivosecchi, Andrea,et al."Future changes in the influence of the NAO on Mediterranean winter precipitation extremes in the EC-Earth3 large Ensemble: The prominent role of internal variability".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 304(2024).